Oreshnik Missile: More Bluster Than Breakthrough
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to tout the Oreshnik ballistic missile’s capabilities while threatening further strikes against Ukraine. Experts, however, see the Kremlin’s focus on this newly launched weapon as a deliberate propaganda tactic aimed at intimidation and distraction rather than a precursor to escalation.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a leading independent security think tank, recently highlighted the Kremlin’s intensified information campaign. It claims that emphasizing the Oreshnik’s range and payload, drawing comparisons with meteor impacts, is an attempt to scare Ukraine and Western allies. The goal is to maintain the narrative of Russia’s military superiority and deter further attacks on Russian territory by Ukraine, equiped with Western weapons.
"Putin’s threats to strike ‘decision-making centers’ in Kyiv are empty words," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on November 29 following Putin’s remarks at a security council meeting in Kazakhstan. Almost a year ago, the Kremlin started threatening Ukraine’s decision-making centers alongside usual infrastructure targets. Zelensky emphasized that Russian forces already regularly bombard Ukrainian cities using drones and missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. "Putin wants to add thousands of missiles to the thousands he’s already fired at Ukraine," Zelensky concluded.
ISW echoes this assessment, noting that Putin’s boasting about Oreshnik, while constant, is part of a broader "reflexive control" operation. The goal, according to ISW, is to project Russian power and deter potential aggressors without necessarily signaling the development of advanced capabilities. US intelligence assessments corroborate the view that the Kremlin doesn’t intend to employ nuclear weapons in the war, even if Ukraine targets Russian territory with Western systems.
Recent analysis by ISW further reveals that the
Russian military, seemingly trying to catch up with Ukraine’s progress, is considering establishing a dedicated unit for unmanned systems, similar to Kyiv’s Unmanned Systems Force created in February 2024.
The scrutiny on Russia’s military declarations comes amidst ongoing intense fighting in Ukraine.
Between the nights of November 27-28 and 28-29, Ukrainian forces clashed with Russian troops, resulting in several major offensives. Russian forces launched substantial drone and missile attacks aimed at crippling Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and vital defense industry facilities. Conversely, Ukrainian troops successfully targeted four Russian air defense systems and radars stationed in occupied Ukrainian territory while also striking two oil depots on Russian soil.
Adding to the military intrigue, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov made a surprise visit to Pyongyang, North Korea, in November. The purpose of the visit remains unknown, raising speculation about potential arms deals between the two nations. While Russia’s latest actions, especially regarding Oreshnik, may seem aggressive, experts highlight that the missile itself doesn’t represent a technological breakthrough.
The Kremlin’s relentless messaging, however, is poised to remain a constant throughout the conflict.
* Is the Oreshnik missile primarily an information warfare tool rather than a decisive military weapon?
## Oreshnik Missile: All Hype and No Bite?
**Host:** Welcome back to the show. We’re joined today by Dr. Emily Carter, a leading expert on Russian military strategy and disinformation campaigns. Dr. Carter, thanks for being here.
**Dr. Carter:** Thanks for having me.
**Host:** We’ve been hearing a lot lately about the “Oreshnik” missile touted by President Putin as a game changer in the war against Ukraine. But some analysts, including the Institute for the Study of War, suggest it’s all hype and a diversion tactic. What are your thoughts on this?
**Dr. Carter:** I agree with that assessment. While the Oreshnik is undoubtedly a powerful weapon, the Kremlin’s focus on it seems more about information warfare than actual military strategy. They’re trying to project an image of untouchable strength, using dramatic comparisons like comparing the missile’s impact to a meteor strike. [1] This is aimed at intimidating both Ukrainians and Western allies, making them think Russia is capable of inflicting unimaginable damage.
**Host:** So you believe it’s a scare tactic designed to deter further Western support for Ukraine?
**Dr. Carter:** Precisely. By emphasizing the Oreshnik’s range and payload, they hope to discourage further arming of Ukraine and potentially dissuade NATO from direct intervention. It also plays into Putin’s narrative of a powerful Russia standing strong against the West.
**Host:** Interestingly, Ukrainian President Zelensky has dismissed these threats as empty words, pointing out that Russia already targets civilian infrastructure with missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
**Dr. Carter:** Exactly.[[[[[[[[[1]](https://uacrisis.org/en/russia-s-oreshnik-strike-a-harbinger-of-the-apocalypse-or-a-propaganda-show) Zelensky’s statement highlights the dubiety of Putin’s claims. Russia has been relentlessly shelling Ukrainian cities for months. A new missile, while potentially more potent, won’t significantly change the reality on the ground.
**Host:** It seems the Oreshnik is more about propaganda than about achieving military superiority.
**Dr. Carter:** I’d say that sums it up perfectly. It’s a tool to manipulate perceptions and project strength, rather than a decisive weapon that will turn the tide of the war.
**Host:** Dr. Carter, thank you for shedding light on this complex issue.
**Dr. Carter:** My pleasure.
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