The latest Sondaggio Swg for Tg La7 reveals a notable shift in Italy’s political landscape, with Futuro Nazionale securing 5.3% support—tied with the Lega—as of June 15, 2026. The survey, conducted over a week, shows Matteo Salvini’s League slipping 0.3%, while Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia fell 0.4%, according to data from the polling firm. Meanwhile, Vittorio Sgarbi’s party, Futuro Nazionale, gained 0.5% in the same period, signaling a potential realignment in the country’s right-wing bloc.
The Shifting Tides of Italian Politics
Italy’s political scene has long been a volatile battleground, but recent poll numbers suggest a subtle yet significant realignment. Futuro Nazionale, a party founded in 2021 by cultural figure Vittorio Sgarbi, has steadily carved out a niche by blending nationalist rhetoric with a focus on cultural identity and anti-corruption. Its 5.3% share, matching the Lega’s, marks a rare parity between two traditionally dominant right-wing forces. “This isn’t a sudden surge, but a gradual consolidation of a distinct ideological strand within the right,” said Marco Tarchi, a political scientist at the University of Bologna. “Futuro Nazionale isn’t just a satellite of the League anymore—it’s positioning itself as an alternative.”
The Lega’s decline, albeit modest, raises questions about its ability to maintain cohesion amid internal fractures. Salvini, once a towering figure in Italian politics, has faced criticism for his hardline stance on immigration and his party’s recent focus on economic austerity. “The Lega’s base is splintering,” Tarchi added. “Some voters are drawn to Futuro Nazionale’s more culturally resonant messaging, even if its policies remain underdeveloped.”
Vannacci’s Surge and the Lega’s Decline
Vittorio Sgarbi’s rise is particularly intriguing. The former culture minister and television personality has leveraged his media presence to amplify his party’s visibility, often framing Futuro Nazionale as a defender of “Italian tradition” against what he calls “globalist elites.” His 0.5% increase in the Swg poll aligns with a broader trend of right-wing parties experimenting with new identities. “Sgarbi’s appeal lies in his theatricality and his ability to tap into cultural anxieties,” said Elena Fagioli, an analyst at the Istituto Affari Internazionali. “But his party lacks the institutional depth to translate this momentum into long-term influence.”
The Lega’s 0.3% drop, meanwhile, reflects broader challenges. The party’s focus on economic issues—particularly its push for tax cuts and reduced public spending—has alienated some traditional supporters who prioritize social policies. “The Lega is caught between its populist roots and the realities of governing,” Fagioli said. “Without a clear economic vision, it risks losing ground to more agile competitors.”
Implications for the 2026 Elections
The poll results come ahead of the 2026 European and national elections, where Italy’s right-wing bloc will face pressure to present a unified front. Futuro Nazionale’s growth complicates this dynamic, as it could siphon votes from both the Lega and Fratelli d’Italia. “This is a critical moment for the right,” said Massimo Franco, a political commentator for Corriere della Sera. “If Futuro Nazionale continues to gain traction, it could force a reevaluation of how the right positions itself in the coming years.”
Historical precedents suggest such shifts are not uncommon. In the 1990s, the rise of Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia disrupted Italy’s traditional left-right divide, while the Five Star Movement’s 2013 emergence reshaped the political map. “Futuro Nazionale’s trajectory mirrors these earlier disruptions,” Franco added. “But it’s too early to say whether it will have the same lasting impact.”
What’s Next for Italy’s Right?
Analysts are closely watching how the Lega and Fratelli d’Italia respond to the challenge. Meloni’s party, which currently holds a majority in the Italian government, has yet to address the poll’s implications publicly. “The government’s stability depends on maintaining unity within the right,” said Tarchi. “If Futuro Nazionale continues to gain ground, it could create fissures that are hard to mend.”
For now, the Swg poll underscores the fluidity of Italian politics. With the 2026 elections on the horizon, the right’s ability to adapt will determine its future. As Fagioli noted, “The political landscape is no longer a fixed structure—it’s a moving target. Parties that fail to evolve risk being left behind.”
“This isn’t a sudden surge, but a gradual consolidation of a distinct ideological strand within the right.” – Marco Tarchi, University of Bologna
“Futuro Nazionale’s appeal lies in its theatricality and its ability to tap into cultural anxieties.” – Elena Fagioli, Istituto Affari Internazionali
