2024-01-10 22:29:07
Around 10:00 p.m. GMT, at the fixing, the Japanese currency lost 0.86% against the greenback, at 145.76 yen per dollar. It also lost 1.25% against the single currency, to 159.94 yen per euro.
For Win Thin, of Brown Brothers Harriman, the Japanese currency was taking the full brunt of the slowdown in wage growth, which only increased by 0.2% year-on-year in November in the archipelago, according to figures published on Wednesday. , well below the 1.5% expected by economists.
However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has made the acceleration of wages an essential marker to determine the appropriate moment to exit the ultra-accommodating monetary policy that the institution has been practicing since 2016.
The BoJ also closely monitors inflation, which it hopes to see settle at a level close to 2% per year, after years of deflation which weighed down the Japanese economy.
But price developments are showing increasingly clear signs of deceleration. On Monday, the Tokyo region index stood at 2.4% year-on-year in December, compared to 2.6% the previous month.
At the end of December, the Japanese Bureau of Statistics reported inflation excluding fresh products of 2.5% year-on-year in November for the whole country, compared to 2.9% in October.
“With this series of weaker than expected indicators, the statements of Bank of Japan Governor (Kazuo) Ueda and the earthquake, the probability of seeing the BoJ change its monetary policy this month is less and less less likely,” commented Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex.
In mid-December, Governor Ueda warned that “uncertainty” about the trajectory of the Japanese economy remained “extremely high”. “We have not yet seen inflation close to the target (2%) in a stable and sustainable way,” the official argued.
“Therefore, it is difficult to say now with a high degree of certainty how we will be able to exit” from the current monetary policy, he concluded.
For Marc Chandler, many currency traders had chosen, at the start of 2024, as one of the major themes of the year, the appreciation of the yen, thanks to an expected tightening from the BoJ, but are now forced to review their positioning, for lack of sign with an inflection.
Wednesday price Tuesday price 10:00 p.m. GMT 10:00 p.m. GMT EUR/USD 1.0973 1.0931 EUR/JPY 159.94 157.94 EUR/CHF 0.9336 0.9317 EUR/GBP 0.8611 0.8600 USD/JPY 145 .76 144.48 USD/CHF 0.8508 0.8523 GBP/USD 1.2736 1.2710
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