2024-01-22 18:25:00
<저작권자 ⓒ 1980-2024 ㈜연합뉴스. 무단 전재 재배포 금지, AI 학습 및 활용 금지>
The Japanese economy is being ‘decoupled’ with the stock market and the real economy operating separately. While the stock market is rising due to the ‘power of money’ as investors flock, the real economy is not reviving as much as the stock market.
On the 22nd, the Nikkei average rose 1.6% to 36,546.95 yen, breaking the highest level in 34 years since January 1990. This is believed to be because the performance of companies that have become competitive in exports due to the low yen has improved, and corporate governance reform is also having an effect.
According to the Japanese economic newspaper Nihon Keizai, half of the operating profits (812.9 billion yen) of the 77 major companies in Japan in the first half of last year were due to the exchange rate effect. Expectations for a lower yen continue due to easing monetary policy. The yen-to-dollar exchange rate rose to 151.9 yen per dollar, close to the highest in 33 years, in mid-November last year, but has since declined and is currently in the 148 yen range. Foreigners continue to buy Japan. According to the Tokyo Stock Exchange, foreigners net purchased 955.7 billion yen worth of stocks in the second week of January (9th to 12th), the highest since June of last year.
However, unlike the hot stock market, the real economy has not been able to shake off the slump of the ‘lost 30 years’. In the third quarter of last year, gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.5% from the previous quarter. This is the first negative growth in three quarters since the fourth quarter of the previous year. This is because last year’s inflation rate (3.1%) hit the highest in 41 years, resulting in sluggish consumption, and exports of semiconductor equipment to China slowed significantly due to the conflict between the US and China.
Accordingly, last year’s GDP was surpassed by Germany for the first time in 55 years, and Japan’s global ranking is expected to fall from 3rd to 4th. GDP per capita has already fallen to last among the G7 (seven countries) in 2022. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that Japan will fall to fifth place by 2026, behind India.
The impact of the strong earthquake that occurred on the Noto Peninsula in Ishikawa Prefecture, western Japan, on the 1st is also becoming visible. According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, Toshiba suspended operations at its semiconductor plant in Ishikawa Prefecture immediately after the earthquake. Nomura Securities estimated that Japan’s GDP would decline by up to 50 billion yen (about 450 billion won) due to the earthquake.
1705955324
#Japans #real #economy #decoupled #stock #market