2024-03-01 01:30:44
Bitcoin once fell to $60,364 early this morning (1), and then fell back to the 61,500 level to fluctuate in a narrow range.JPMorgan analysts predicted in an earlier report that the price could fall to $42,000 after the halving in April.
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After experiencing yesterday’s roller coaster market, Bitcoin has repeatedly challenged to break through 63,000, but unfortunately it has been unable to make further gains. When it was close to three o’clock today (1st), the lowest dropped to US$60,364, almost falling below the 60,000 mark again.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading within a narrow range near the 61,500 level, rising 0.4% in the past 24 hours.
BTC spot price｜Source: Binance
JPMorgan analyst: May fall to $42,000 after halving in April
Will Bitcoin advance all the way and break through all-time highs?JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou issued a note on Wednesday.Predictions in the reportthe Bitcoin production halving event planned to occur in April will reduce the reward of Bitcoin miners from the current 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC.
They warned that the halving would have a negative impact on miners’ profitability and could increase Bitcoin’s production costs, thereby affecting its market price. Analysts predict that the price of Bitcoin could fall to $42,000 after the halving.
Bitcoin’s production costs have proven to be an important bottom line for its price in practice.
Our current median estimate of production costs is $26,500, and we expect this to rise to $53,000 after the halving event.
In addition, analysts added that less efficient miners may exit the mining industry due to reduced profitability, which may cause the Bitcoin network’s hashrate to drop by approximately 20% after the halving. This would bring the estimated center value of production costs down further to $42,000 (based on an average electricity cost of $0.05 per kWh). Analysts said:
The $42,000 estimate is also the price level we expect Bitcoin prices to trend toward once the excitement surrounding April’s halving subsides.
At the same time, analysts also expressed concerns about the risk of miner concentration on the Bitcoin network after the halving. They believe that after the halving, the proportion of listed mining companies will increase because they will protect their profitability by reducing overall costs, while Bitcoin miners in different regions may achieve horizontal integration through mergers and acquisitions.
Bitcoin mining cost and currency price relationship
However, according to recent historydataThe last time the price of Bitcoin was “close to or lower than” the cost of mining occurred at the bottom of the bear market in 2022, when many mining companies closed down as a result. But during a bull market cycle, the price of BTC is usually much higher than the cost of mining.
Although in history, there is usually a small correction after the halving is completed, it may be difficult to say whether it will reach $42,000.
The entire network liquidated US$340 million in the past 24 hours
Although the liquidation situation is not as serious as yesterday, according to Coinglass dataIt shows that in the past 24 hours, the liquidation amount of the entire network still exceeded 340 million US dollars, 114,000 people were liquidated, and the market volatility remained violent.
Among the liquidated currencies, BTC ranked first with $95.52 million, and ETH ranked second with $53.1 million.
Increases in the top ten currencies in the past 24 hours
CoinMarkeCap datashowmost of the top ten currencies are still rising in the past 24 hours, with SOL rising by as much as 8.2%, and other tokens such as XRP, ADA, and DOGE also rising by about 3~5% respectively.
The only one that fell was BNB, which fell 2.81% in the past 24 hours.
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