2024-04-09 16:50:13
The decline in inflation has been marking a downward trend throughout Javier Milei’s administration, however, the way in which the slowdown in increases is occurring is being debated. That is why, in order to analyze this situation in greater depth, this medium contacted the economist and market expert, Juan Manuel Carnevale.
“The Central Bank, one day before knowing the inflation rate of 13%, This is when the reference rate drops from 110% to 80%”commented Juan Manuel Carnevale. “With this, the Government, historically in its short administration, works in some way generating expectations that later end up being better and people react positively,” he added.
Inflation of less than 10% could be observed for the month of March
Subsequently, Carnevale stated: “Now, Minister Caputo is saying that inflation is going to be around 10% and if we base it on all the things we have seen in this short time, The inflation that will be announced on Friday will probably be less than 10%”. Then, he stated that, “the digit is going to be celebrated and we can say that inflation is going to be lower because Argentina already has all its local prices equal to or above international prices”.
What is putting a ceiling on inflation?
“Since salaries have not yet increased, the same recession is putting a very strong ceiling on inflation. “Inflation is adjusted in the wrong way, which is on the supply and demand side, which is actually how it works everywhere in the world,” said the interviewee. “What remains to be raised is relatively little“For companies, the 300% electricity increase already arrived in the month of March, it is not that they will receive the bill in May,” he added.
On the other hand, the economist noted: “We are already reaching what would be the maximum of the increases and now, on the recession side, supply and demand are lowering prices, since there is a lot of price component that was waiting for a devaluation jump.”
“The bad news is that electricity and gas increases are missingNot only is what is coming a lot,” said Carnevale. In closing, he said that, “The increases we are having now are matching the exchange rate jump“What is missing now is a new increase where local prices, with a dollar of $900, go to international prices.”
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