Kazakhstan: "This crisis is very problematic for Putin"

Explosion of violence in Kazakhstan. Dozens of protesters were killed and thousands more were injured in clashes with police on Thursday. Begun on Sunday against the backdrop of rising gas prices, the anger movement has quickly grown in intensity since then, while turning into a political riot in Almaty, the economic capital of this former Soviet republic.

Faced with chaos, Moscow and its allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes Armenia, Tajikistan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, announced on Thursday the dispatch of a “force collective peacekeeping “, after the call to this effect sent the day before by Kazakhstani President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. For Michaël Levystone, researcher specializing in Kazakhstan and Central Asia at the Russia center of the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI), this military intervention could lead to a renewed Russian influence in the country.

L’Express: Should we fear a worsening of the situation in Kazakhstan in the coming days?

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Michaël Levystone: This situation is completely new in Kazakhstan. And the risk is indeed real. Initially, President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev instead tried to play appeasement by reversing the rise in the price of gas, dismissing his government, and even dismissing former President Nazarbayev – much contested by the street – of the leadership of the National Security Council. But it is clear that these strong decisions did not calm the protest movement.

In fact, since Wednesday we have witnessed a very strong hardening of discourse and actions, with a human toll which has increased considerably. We are very clearly today in a much firmer phase in the management of this crisis. However, if the protest movement was not appeased by the pledges of goodwill from the government, it is difficult to imagine that it could be so now that many deaths are to be deplored and that the government calls for help. foreign security forces.

Beyond the initial demands against the rise in the price of gas, how to explain this uprising of the population?

These demands around the price of gas have revealed socio-economic tensions and a deeper unease within society, where a whole part of the population lives in poverty. In Kazakhstan, the oil and gas income has been monopolized by an elite in power for 30 years, in particular by the clan of former President Nazarbayev. The Kazakh people benefit very little from it. Suddenly, demands for a better sharing of wealth have emerged. In addition, despite the reforms launched two years ago by President Tokayev to liberalize the regime, people are calling for better representation at the political level. There is a thirst for freedom that is expressed.

As part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia sent the first peacekeeping troops to Kazakhstan on Thursday. Can this crisis constitute a threat for Vladimir Putin?

This crisis is very problematic for Putin. First, because after the Belarusian crisis between 2020 and 2021, we see that a new authoritarian regime at the gates of Russia is seriously shaken. It’s problematic for him, if only symbolically. He is in an emergency situation. For him, it is a question of preventing the largest neighboring country of Russia in the post-Soviet space from imploding.

By appealing to Russia, Tokayev brought down his last card. If the CSTO does not manage to restore calm in the country, we cannot, in the long term, rule out a change of presidency. Although some tensions may have appeared in the relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan in recent years, the two countries remain very closely intertwined. They are two strategic partners, within the CSTO but also within other important regional organizations, such as the Eurasian Economic Union (UEE) or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). For Vladimir Putin, it is essential to avoid the collapse of Kazakhstan.

Can the intervention of Russian troops also allow Putin to consolidate his influence in the country, appearing as Tokayev’s last resort?

What is certain is that if Tokayev owes his salvation to the CSTO, and therefore to Russia, this would effectively translate into renewed political influence from Moscow in Kazakhstan. However, one can wonder how the Kazakh public opinion would perceive its president in such circumstances. Its room for maneuver to govern would be reduced considerably.

On TwitterRussia Today boss Margarita Simonian says Russia should impose conditions on Kazakhstan in return for its intervention, such as recognition of Crimea and recognition of Russian as a second official language. This indicates that Russian aid is not disinterested …

His remarks reveal that there is, on the side of Moscow, a desire to consolidate the Russian pole of influence in Central Asia that constitutes Kazakhstan. Regarding the language, there is a real fear that Russian will lose ground in this country. This is a very real trend. However, I am not sure that Russia can impose its conditions so uninhibitedly, especially in an emergency. Moreover, if Tokayev accepted them, it would amount to a total vassalization of his country. I’m not sure that’s what he wants.

After the recent crisis in Belarus, does not Putin appear more and more as “the gendarme” of the former Soviet republics?

Yes, obviously. There is probably a logic of external communication, aimed at telling his close allies that he does not allow disorder to develop at his borders. It is also a way of sending a message inside your country, showing that you should not hope to overthrow your own regime. However, it is not certain that Russia has the means to sustainably increase its efforts abroad: in Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan. And let’s not forget that it is also present in Syria and Libya. One can wonder if Russia is not pursuing a foreign policy which is disproportionate to its real means. Putin will not be able to stay on all fronts indefinitely.

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China has significant economic interests in Kazakhstan. Can this crisis also worry Beijing?

Not really at this point. China does have economic interests there, through its oil imports. However, Beijing is not in a logic of military intervention in Central Asia. This role of preserving security stability in the region is primarily assigned to Russia. All that Beijing cares about is that the oil keeps coming. And Kazakhstan would have no interest in stopping selling its oil to China, even if there were to be regime change. So I believe China will watch the situation from afar and let Russia handle this crisis.