Kasikorn Bank (KBANK) views the baht movement next week (December 12-16) at 34.50-35.30 baht per dollar.
Meanwhile, the Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors to be monitored, including the Fed’s monetary policy meeting results and Dot Plots, the results of the ECB and BOE meetings, foreign capital flow (flow), and China’s stance on COVID-19 measures. Key US economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), retail sales and industrial production data for November. New York Fed Manufacturing Survey and the results of the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for December. Markets are also looking forward to the preliminary December PMI for the US, Eurozone and UK, as well as November economic figures for China such as manufacturing production, retail sales and house price indexes.
However, the baht movement was volatile. The baht flipped from its highest level in nearly six months at 34.58 baht per dollar. Let’s gradually weaken in the beginning to the middle of the week. Amid the dollar’s support from the prospect of a Fed rate hike. In addition, many Asian currencies face depreciation pressure. (Despite the news that the Chinese government is preparing to relax COVID measures) due to concerns about the weak signal of the global economy. again in line with foreign investors’ net buying of Thai bonds.
In addition, the dollar has a negative factor from US labor market data. coming out weak (Number of continuous unemployment claims in the US increased to a 10-month high at 1.67 million), further supporting the possibility that the Fed will begin to slow down its outlook for policy rate hikes at the FOMC meeting on December 13-14. However, the appreciation of the baht slows down. down some at the end of the week before entering the long holiday in the domestic market.
However, on Friday, December 9, 2022, the baht closed the market at 34.79 baht per dollar. Compared to the level of 34.77 baht per dollar on Friday (December 2) for the investment portfolio status of foreign investors between December 6-9, 2022, although foreign investors sell net Thai shares for 5,148 million baht, but It has Net Inflows into the Thai bond market for 14,149 million baht (net buy 17,565 million baht minus expired debt securities 3,416 million baht).