Kasikorn Bank Public Company Limited or KBANK Looking at the movement of the baht in the next week (2-6 Jan. ’23) at the level of 34.00-34.80 baht / dollar from the close of the market on Friday 30 Dec. ’22 at the level of 34.56 baht / dollar by important factors to monitor, namely the inflation rate in December 65 of Thailand Foreign capital direction Covid situation in China and the movement of Asian currencies.
The key US economic data is non-farm payrolls. unemployment rate Private sector employment data, PMI and ISM indexes, manufacturing and service sectors in December. Number of weekly unemployment benefits and Fed meeting notes
In addition, the market is still waiting to follow the December inflation numbers. of the eurozone and the manufacturing and service sector PMI in December. of China, Eurozone and England as well.
In the last week of 2022, the baht moved volatilely in an appreciating frame. The baht and most regional currencies appreciated along with the yuan amid positive signs after China lifted quarantine measures for travelers from overseas. In addition, the baht is supported by the direction of foreign capital. which returned to have a net buy position in both the stock market and Thai bonds. However, the strengthening framework of the baht moderated partly during the week. according to the recovery of the dollar and US bond yield This continues to benefit from the trend of the Fed raising interest rates.
For the overall picture in 2022, the baht depreciated by about 3.3% to 34.56 baht / dollar (as of December 30, 2022) from the end of 2021 at 33.41 baht / dollar. Most of the baht is in the first 10 months of 2022, mainly from the appreciation of the US dollar. According to the direction of tightening monetary policy by accelerating the Fed’s interest rate hike, however, the baht began to gradually strengthen back during November-December. 2022 after the Fed began to signal a slowdown in the size of the rate hike. In addition, there is additional support from the hope that China gradually opens up the country.