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Keating Accuses SMH & The Age of Misleading China War Predictions

Former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating has reignited his criticism of Nine Newspapers, accusing the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age of disseminating misleading information regarding the threat of conflict with China. Keating’s renewed attack coincides with the third anniversary of the “Red Alert” series, published in March 2023, which warned of a potential war with China within three years.

Keating alleges the reporting was based on unsubstantiated claims and served to unnecessarily alarm the public. He specifically targeted Peter Hartcher, Nine’s international editor, as the primary author of what he described as an “irresponsible prediction.” The former Prime Minister contends that none of the dire forecasts presented in the series have materialized, further fueling his condemnation of the reporting.

The “Red Alert” series, published on March 7, 2023, relied on assessments from five national security experts who warned that Australia needed to prepare for a potential full-scale military conflict with China. The report stated, “The overwhelming source of danger to Australia is from China,” and suggested that the timeline for potential conflict was far shorter than official government estimates. The series prompted widespread debate and criticism, with some experts questioning its alarmist tone and reliance on specific sources.

In a statement released Friday, Keating labeled Hartcher “maladroit” and revisited previous harsh criticisms, including calling him a “psychopath” and an “old acid drop.” Here’s not the first time Keating has publicly clashed with Hartcher; the initial publication of the “Red Alert” series sparked a heated exchange between the two. Hartcher responded to Keating’s earlier criticisms in 2024, accusing the former Prime Minister of being “Australia’s foremost apologist for the Chinese Communist Party” and exhibiting “bloody-mindedness in retirement” and an “autocratic tendency,” as reported by The Sydney Morning Herald.

Criticism of the ‘Red Alert’ Series

The “Red Alert” series wasn’t without its detractors beyond Keating. Paul Barry, on the ABC’s Media Watch, too criticized the series as being overly sensationalized. Margaret Simons, writing for Guardian Australia in 2023, interviewed foreign affairs specialists who described the series as “pretentious,” “irresponsible,” and even “implicitly racist” in its portrayal of China.

Keating further asserted that Bevan Shields, the then-editor of the Sydney Morning Herald, allowed Hartcher to “concoct a China-threat story aided by a group of handpicked anti-China accomplices,” characterizing the series as “one of the most shameful episodes in the history of Australian journalism.” Shields stepped down as editor last year and was replaced by Jordan Baker, with Keating expressing hope that Baker would prioritize “amoral standards of journalism” in the publication.

The former Prime Minister contrasted the perceived threat from China with the historical record of military intervention by the United States, citing “last weekend’s premeditated attack on Iran” as an example. He noted that China has not engaged in a full-scale attack on another state in nearly half a century, with its last significant border conflict occurring with Vietnam in 1979.

Keating questioned Hartcher’s continued employment as international editor, asking, “How maladroit do you have to be before the management decides your copy has no value?” Nine and Hartcher both declined to comment on Keating’s latest remarks, according to Mediaweek.

A History of Disagreement

This latest exchange is part of a longer pattern of disagreement between Keating and Hartcher. In 2025, Keating penned a letter to The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, criticizing Hartcher’s reporting and accusing him of blaming Australia for failing to adequately prepare for its own defense, rather than acknowledging potential failures in US foreign policy. The letter, published on February 26, 2025, accused Hartcher of prioritizing US military interests over Australia’s strategic needs.

Keating has consistently argued that Australia should not be overly reliant on the United States for its security, advocating for a more independent foreign policy. This stance has often put him at odds with those who favor a closer alliance with Washington, including Hartcher.

The debate surrounding the “Red Alert” series and Keating’s ongoing criticism highlights the complex and often contentious discussion surrounding Australia’s foreign policy and its relationship with both China and the United States. As geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region continue to evolve, the question of how Australia should navigate these challenges remains a central focus of national debate.

The future of this debate will likely hinge on evolving geopolitical dynamics and the ongoing assessment of risks and opportunities in the region. Continued scrutiny of media reporting on national security issues, and a commitment to balanced and informed analysis, will be crucial for fostering a productive public discourse. Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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