Mr. Naris Satapholdecha ChiefTTB Economic Analysis Center (ttbanalytics) TMB Thanachart Bank Public Company Limited or TTB revealed that during the first 5 days of this year (1-5 Jan), the baht appreciated quite quickly, reaching 2.1%, being the No. 1 appreciation. of currencies in Asia and ranked number 2 in the world because of the trend of Thai tourism continuously recovering Therefore, it is more attractive compared to other countries which continuously attract foreign investment to Thailand. Most of them come to speculate in short-term debt instruments.
by value directionbahtAfter this, it is expected that in the short term until a new rate hike by the Fed will meet at the end of January. The baht has a chance to strengthen slightly at 33.50 baht per dollar. But if it appreciates quickly and falls below that level, it is believed that The BOT should take care to reduce the volatility of the baht. to prevent the baht from appreciating too much compared to other currencies in the region Therefore, it is believed that the baht is unlikely to appreciate below the level of 33 baht per dollar.
howeverbahtThis year, there is still a chance to come back to weaken. from the risk factor of global economic slowdown causing the purchasing power of foreign tourists to decrease and affect Thai tourism And after the Fed raises interest rates, we need to monitor how much foreign investment will flow back. by evaluating the frameworkbahtThis year at 34-35 baht per dollar.
“It is suggested that importers may use this rhythm. It is an opportunity to partially mitigate the exchange rate risk. Gradually do it in phases. because the direction of the baht in the future is still volatile
Ms. Roong Sanguanruang Senior Vice President Global Markets Planning Division, BankKrungsriAyutthaya (BAY) said during the first week of this year. Bank of Thailand (BOT) should take care ofbahtto reduce volatility to prevent the baht from appreciating too much compared to other currencies in the region After yesterday, the baht quickly strengthened, reaching 33.75 baht per dollar. It is number one in Asia excluding Japan.
However, from foreign capital flows that have come to stay in the Thai bond market, during the last 3 working days (30 Dec. 2022 – 4 Jan. 2023), foreign investors have net buys in the bond market. totaling up to 42,000 million baht, most of which come in to stay in short-term bonds, coming in on average 10,000 million baht per day and often having a fast-moving nature. You also need to be careful when foreigners pull their money back, causing the baht to weaken.
There is also a downside risk for Thai exports to open up. amid a recession in the mainstream economy following the aggressive monetary policy last year The valuation of the baht this year is 32-36 baht per dollar. or the average closes at the end of 2023 at 33.25 baht per dollar
Mr. Kobsith Sinlapachai, Head of Economic and Capital Market Research, Bank of ThailandKasikorn Thai (KBANK)said What you need to be careful about is that the baht may appreciate quickly. because the incoming liquidity is less make money more volatile The baht appreciated quickly Plus people think that the Fed’s interest rate hikes as hard as in the past are less necessary. because it could be a catalyst for a recession Therefore, the baht will continue to appreciate in the first quarter of this year. from returning tourism, but the second quarter will see the depreciation from dividend payment and take out investor’s money
Mr. Wachirawat Banchuen, Senior Economist, Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) The Siam Commercial Bank Public Company Limited said that in the short term, the baht is expected to continue to appreciate. and has the opportunity to reach the level of 33.50 baht per dollar during this 1 month from capital inflows into Thailand Yearly average Expected to be at 33-34 baht per dollar.
Mr. Poon Panichphiboon, Money Market Strategist, Capital Market BankKrung Thai said that during the period of volatility, the baht appreciated more than other currencies in the region.Bank of Thailand has tried to reduce the volatility of the baht continuously as in the past
Because in the short term, there is still a chance that the baht will move up to test the level of 33.50 baht per dollar. from the hope of the return of Chinese tourists and the flow of profitable gold transactions. While the direction of the dollar is still not a key factor supporting the appreciation.
But also be aware of volatility and shore pressure.baht depreciation If the dollar comes back to appreciate along with the timing of the decline in gold prices This may occur in the event that US economic data came out better than expected Causing the market to worry about the prospect of a Fed rate hike. In addition, the worrying situation of the COVID-19 outbreak in China may come back to put pressure on Asian currencies as well.
Therefore, in the short term, looking at the baht framework, the support line is 33.50 baht per dollar and the resistance line is 34.00-34.25 baht. It is recommended that entrepreneurs should fully use various currency hedging tools, such as options, amid the condition that the currency market is still volatile. high volatility
Mr. Kornphat Worachet Director of Research and Investment Services Capital Nomura Securities (Public Company Limited) said that stocks that will benefit directly from the direction of the baht appreciation. It is a stock with a large amount of foreign currency debt. Divided into 4 groups: 1. Airline stocks Because it is a group of stocks with high foreign currency borrowing. which the research department Used to do an assessment that every 5% that the baht appreciates causing stocks in the airline group to have an increase of approximately 40-50%, which recommends Plc. Asia Aviation (AAV)
2. Power plant stocks It is another group with high foreign currency debt. Since in the past, power plant entrepreneurs have expanded their investments abroad quite a lot, therefore, the stocks recommended and benefited positively from the appreciation of the baht, Plc. Global Power Synergy (GPSC), Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)
3. Industrial Estate Group It is a group with high foreign currency debt. We recommend WHA Corporation Public Company Limited (WHA), Amata Corporation Public Company Limited (AMATA) and 4. Imported goods group. Recommended stocks that benefit: TOA Paint (Thailand) Public Company Limited (TOA), Ichitan Group Public Company Limited (ICHI), Sabina Public Company Limited (SABINA), U Bill Public Company Limited. Li Enterprises (JUBILE), Jay Mart Public Company Limited (JMART), Com7 Public Company Limited (COM7)