Khamenei’s Ouster Plot: Inside Story

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Khamenei‘s Role Under Scrutiny: Iran’s Future Leadership in Focus

Tehran is currently witnessing heightened debate regarding the future role of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the Supreme Leader of Iran, particularly considering recent attacks. The discussions revolve around whether the 86-year-old leader should continue to hold power amidst growing internal and external pressures.

Plots to Sideline Khamenei Emerge

Prior to recent events, a group comprising Iranian businessmen, political figures, military officials, and relatives of prominent clerics had started formulating strategies to govern Iran potentially without Khamenei. These plans considered scenarios such as the leader’s death or his removal from power.

According to inside sources, the constitutional mechanism for removing Khamenei would involve a vote by the Assembly of Experts, a council of 88 clerics. However, orchestrating such a vote under the present circumstances is deemed improbable. A more likely scenario involves insiders pressuring khamenei to delegate authority to a temporary replacement. This leadership committee, composed of high-ranking officials, would then negotiate with the United States to halt attacks.

Former President Hassan Rouhani is reportedly being considered for a significant role within this proposed leadership committee.

Military officials involved in these discussions have reportedly engaged with counterparts from a major Gulf country, seeking support for altering Iran’s course and leadership structure.

Immediate Reactions to U.S. Bombardment

Following the U.S. strikes on Iranian facilities, the sentiment among these groups has become more complex. one source indicated that the chances of sidelining Khamenei have increased, while also acknowledging the inherent uncertainty. Another source expressed diminished optimism regarding the group’s ability to secure peace with the U.S. and Israel, but suggested that even a belligerent stance might necessitate Khamenei’s removal.

Conflicting Narratives and potential Responses

Differing accounts of the damage inflicted during the attacks are emerging from Washington and Tehran. The U.S. claims a successful obliteration of Iran’s nuclear program while Iran downplays the destruction, asserting that nuclear materials had been relocated before the strikes. This divide has further polarized opinions within Iranian circles. Some insiders favor negotiating a deal with the U.S.,even if it requires removing Khamenei,while others advocate for retaliation to prevent further aggression.

Mostafa Najafi, a Tehran-based expert connected to the Iranian security establishment, anticipates an Iranian response and potential escalation of the conflict. He noted that Iran had prepared for potential American intervention and is well-equipped for a prolonged battle due to its experiance in asymmetric warfare.

Iran’s Limited options and Future Trajectory

Iran’s options for direct retaliation are constrained. Hezbollah’s capabilities have diminished, and Iraqi militias are unlikely to involve themselves in a new conflict during an election period. Some within the Iranian establishment have suggested withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and openly pursuing nuclear weapons.

Experts like Mojtaba Dehghani suggest Iran might launch a symbolic attack, perhaps targeting U.S. bases in Iraq. However, Dehghani believes that such actions could escalate the war, leading to Khamenei’s downfall as rival factions sieze power and seek peace.After 35 years as Iran’s Supreme Leader, Khamenei faces unprecedented challenges.

Iran’s Choice: War or Compromise?

Iran is at a critical juncture. It must choose between escalating the war, potentially alienating Gulf countries, or pursuing a historic compromise with the U.S., abandoning its long-standing hostility. Elite circles are questioning whether Khamenei will need to be replaced nonetheless of the chosen path.

Key Players and Potential Scenarios: A Summary

Player/Group	Potential Role	Likely Stance
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei	Current Supreme Leader	Resistant to compromise, cautious.
Hassan Rouhani	Former President	Potential member of leadership committee.
Assembly of Experts	Constitutional body	Required to vote for Khamenei’s removal.
Military Officials	Influential figures	Seeking support for leadership change.
Mostafa Najafi	Tehran-based expert	Anticipates Iranian response and escalation.

The Evolving Role of Supreme Leader in Iran

The position of Supreme Leader in Iran is not merely a political office; it embodies both spiritual and temporal authority. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has held this position since 1989, following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic. The Supreme Leader’s responsibilities encompass setting the overall policies of the nation, commanding the armed forces, and approving candidates for presidential elections.

The current discussions surrounding Khamenei’s future role reflect a broader debate about the direction of Iran. Factors such as economic pressures, social discontent, and geopolitical tensions are contributing to calls for change. While the Supreme Leader has traditionally been seen as unchallengeable, the recent events indicate a shift in the political landscape.

Did You know? The Assembly of experts,responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader,consists of 88 members elected by direct popular vote every eight years.

Frequently Asked Questions About Khamenei’s Role and Iran’s Future