2024-04-17 08:37:41
“Krungsri” expects the baht this week to fluctuate within the range of 36.40-37.00 baht/dollar after the market reviews the Fed interest rate outlook.
Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) Evaluate the movement of the baht this week. It tends to be in the range of 36.40-37.00 baht/dollar compared to last week. The baht closed stronger at 36.61 baht/dollar after trading in the range of 36.25-36.79 baht/dollar, while the dollar strengthened against all major currencies last week. The yen hit a new 34-year low and the euro fell to a five-month low, while US bond yields Rising after US inflation was higher than expected for the third month in a row.
The March general Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.5% compared to the same period last year. This was the highest rate in six months. The core CPI index increased 3.8% year-on-year. This is also higher than investors expected. In 1Q24, the core CPI index rose 4.2%, accelerating from 3.4% in 4Q2023. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its interest rate at 4.00%, but Signaling that interest rates may be cut in June, foreign investors bought Thai stocks for 7,918 million baht but sold bonds for a net 16,566 million baht.
For this week’s overview After inflation figures and US consumer spending were stronger than expected, As a result, the market has revised its forecast for the timing of the first interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) from June to September. In this situation The dollar is expected to continue to gain support in the short term. Geopolitical tensions and the risk of soaring energy prices dragging down global economic growth are also seen. Another way to stimulate demand for the dollar
While the situation within the country The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) views that the Thai economy in 2024 is likely to expand higher than the previous year. from private consumption and tourism Including momentum from government spending during the rest of the year. Meanwhile, exports recovered gradually and the MPC assessed that general inflation Will return to the target range at the end of this year. While 2 committee members agreed that the interest rate should be reduced to 2.25% in line with the potential of the economy expanding lower. and will help relieve the burden of debtors to some extent Most of the directors agreed that Monetary policy has limited effectiveness in solving structural problems.
Therefore, we view that the MPC’s latest attitude as a whole is not in a hurry to cut interest rates. However, there is an opportunity to cut interest rates this year. If the economic trend changes from that The MPC has assessed it.
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