2024-01-04 22:35:42
Most recently, for the first time, a large number of militiamen fighting in Gaza – thousands – were released home. This was made possible by a change in military tactics, which Galant confirmed today: More targeted action is now being taken in the north of the Gaza Strip. In concrete terms, this primarily means commando operations, targeted air strikes on Hamas positions and the destruction of tunnels – rather than a broad military presence with tanks and other heavy equipment. In the south, however, the Hamas leadership continues to be persecuted.
At the same time, the army began to shift its attention more towards the north and the threat posed by the pro-Iranian Hezbollah. The killing of senior Hamas Politburo member Saleh al-Aruri on Tuesday in the middle of a neighborhood of the Lebanese capital Beirut controlled by the terrorist group Hezbollah was the first such attack on Hamas officials outside Gaza and the West Bank.
Perseverance in hunting down those responsible
Even though Israel has a long-standing tradition of not officially acknowledging this, all signs point to the country’s military and secret services being behind the killing of Aruri, who was buried in the Shatila refugee camp on Thursday.
Shortly after the Hamas attack that left around 1,200 dead and hundreds kidnapped, Israel’s government announced that it would hold all those responsible for Hamas accountable. Similar to the attack on the Israeli team during the Olympic Games in Munich in September 1973, they may remain in the Mossad’s sights for decades.
First steps towards the return of those who have been resettled
The consequences for general developments in the Middle East are likely to be more immediate: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah announced a sharp reaction – but at least in Israel, the predominant assessment among experts is that Hezbollah wants to avoid an escalation of the current daily exchanges of blows. What is clear is that Hezbollah will attempt a surprise strike against Israel, whether on the border or elsewhere, now or later.
picturedesk.com/Jalaa Marey Israeli tank on the border with Lebanon
The fact that tens of thousands of Israelis who have been living on the border have had to be deported for security reasons for months was and is already an enormous success for Nasrallah. This is exactly what Israel apparently wants to slowly change. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted on a “fundamental change” on Thursday.
Army chief Herzi Halevi announced on Wednesday a comprehensive plan to secure the towns near the border and a greatly increased army presence for at least a year. The border towns are within Hezbollah’s firing radius, and every movement of civilians can often be observed by the militants with the naked eye. In a conversation with US mediator Amos Hochstein, Galant emphasized that Israel preferred a diplomatic solution. However, Galant made it clear that he doubts that such a deal will come about.
Israel sees itself as a bulwark against Iran
From Israel’s perspective, it is becoming increasingly clear to the Western allies to what extent the aggression against Israel is being controlled by its arch-enemy Iran. Tehran has activated all of its allies – Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. And Iranian warnings or threats would always be directed against the USA and Israel together. This is intended to place Israel’s confrontation with Hamas and the Palestinians as a whole in a broader context that is met with greater understanding in Europe and the USA. Israel is increasingly presenting itself as a bulwark for the West – and Arab states – against the Islamist threat.
ORF analyzes from Beirut and Tel Aviv
ORF correspondent Karim El-Gawhary reports from Beirut and Tim Cupal reports from Tel Aviv. El-Gawahry talks about Hezbollah, which is threatening retaliation after the attack in Lebanon, and Cupal talks about the further source of conflict for Israel.
“Far away” from achieving the goal
Israel’s former deputy security advisor, Chuck Freilich, also emphasized in a debate at the Israeli think tank Institute for National Security (INSS) that they are “far away” from calling for the destruction of Hamas or the return of all hostages – more than 130 are still in the country hands of Hamas. Also due to pressure from the US government, the army is now in the process of moving to “phase three”.
No “day after” strategy
At the same time, Israel’s government has not yet been able to agree on how it envisions the “day after” – after hostilities have largely ceased. The government has so far vehemently rejected the option favored by the USA with a reformed Palestinian Authority.
After weeks of reluctance and continued resistance from Prime Minister Netanyahu, Galant publicly launched the debate about the “day after” on Thursday evening. Israel will have no civilian presence in Gaza, the administration will be taken over by “Palestinian bodies” – although without saying whether he means the Palestinian Authority. The right-wing extremist parts of the coalition, which demand a permanent occupation and settlements in Gaza up to and including the expulsion of the Palestinians, immediately criticized Galant sharply.
Time to make a decision is running out
Time is running out for Israel’s government: Israel needs a plan coordinated with the USA for the time afterward. However, it is difficult to imagine an agreement in the coalition. It also seems unthinkable that Netanyahu would throw out the two right-wing extremist parties. He is now more dependent on them than on any other party in his long career.
The US pressure will increase significantly in the next few weeks because of the upcoming election campaign there – US President Joe Biden does not want the Gaza war to become a major issue. It is no coincidence that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is arriving again for talks on Friday. What is particularly dramatic is that all of these circumstances make the prospects of a deal to bring back the more than 130 hostages increasingly remote.
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