Joe Burrow stands as the favorite for the NFL MVP award after compiling 23 passing touchdowns and completing 74 percent of his passes.
Burrow has thrown 16 touchdowns in his past four games for the 6-2 Cincinnati Bengals. The team faces the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, followed by games against the Washington Commanders, New Orleans Saints, and Cleveland Browns.
Assessing the Betting Value
- Burrow leads the market at +175 odds, but the Bengals share a 6-2 record with the 7-1 Buffalo Bills and 7-1 San Francisco 49ers.
- Josh Allen holds 21 total scores for Buffalo with a matchup against the New York Jets ahead, while Brock Purdy leads the league in QBR for San Francisco at +425 odds.
- Trevor Lawrence offers a +800 payout for the 6-2 Jacksonville Jaguars, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt with 18 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Evaluating the Top Contenders
Burrow is and should be the favorite, as he has compiled 23 passing touchdowns and completed 74 percent of his passes. What else do you want? Following Sunday’s meeting with the Steelers, the Commanders, Saints, and Browns appear on the docket, providing him with continued opportunities to produce. But I’m passing at +175.
While Cincinnati remains in the hunt for the division title with a 6-2 mark, Buffalo and San Francisco both boast 7-1 records. The Steelers found something playing Cover 3 in their first meeting with the Bengals. That makes grabbing this line a bad bet during Burrow’s hottest stretch at his shortest price.
With just 12 passing touchdowns, Allen might look further behind than he actually is. If you include his nine rushing touchdowns, the signal-caller for this one-loss squad has accounted for 21 total scores, having already secured victories over both 6-2 Detroit and 6-2 Minnesota.
Buffalo has a prime chance to continue accumulating victories and impressive statistics in this week’s contest against the Jets. Although Allen remains in contention thanks to his mobility, Burrow’s efficiency is superior, and Purdy offers a better return on investment while playing for a team with an identical record.
Purdy Holds a Strong Case Despite Betting Odds
Purdy has the strongest case outside of the top two. He tops the NFL in QBR for the 7-1 49ers, and his ability to gain yards on the ground adds a dimension beyond his passing metrics.
He faces a favorable test against the Cowboys this week, particularly given how that defensive unit has fared when facing elite signal-callers. San Francisco can solidify its hold on the NFC’s top spot during the next three weeks with upcoming games against the Vikings, Seahawks, and Giants.
Still, +425 isn’t a favorable enough position to bet. Purdy has 17 passing touchdowns to Burrow’s 23. Another comfortable win could help, but it doesn’t close that gap. I like his chances. I don’t love the payout.
While Love is currently the league leader in passing yardage, he has participated in one more contest than the other top contenders. Burrow averages more yards per game at 298.3 to 290.9 and has a much higher completion rate than Love at 74 percent to 63 percent.
Green Bay is 6-3 and fourth in its division. That’s a lot to overcome for a guy priced at just +600. Love’s past two games were excellent: six touchdowns, no interceptions, and two wins. He has another chance to generate buzz against Minnesota this week, though the current odds already bake in the assumption that his hot streak will persist. I need a much bigger payout. Easy pass here.
Chasing Value in Jacksonville
This is the one I’d take a small shot on. Jacksonville currently sits atop the AFC South at 6-2, with Lawrence posting 18 touchdown passes, four interceptions, and an average of 8.6 yards per attempt. It is important to view his lower passing yardage totals through the proper lens; Lawrence has seen limited action in fourth quarters because the Jaguars have been consistently putting games out of reach.
| Quarterback | Team Record | Passing Touchdowns | MVP Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 6-2 | 23 | +175 |
| Josh Allen | 7-1 | 12 (21 Total) | Not Listed |
| Brock Purdy | 7-1 | 17 | +425 |
| Jordan Love | 6-3 | Not Listed | +600 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 6-2 | 18 | +800 |
He has a prime opportunity to bolster his statistical profile with two games against Tennessee over the next three weeks, followed by potential wins over Chicago and Pittsburgh that would enhance his candidacy. The risk is obvious.
The schedule has been light, Lawrence struggled against a competent Broncos defense, and Jacksonville can keep winning without Lawrence catching Burrow statistically. But at +800, I’m getting enough to consider that risk. Lawrence is already playing efficiently enough. Now he needs the numbers and attention. He needs to perform well against the Bears and Steelers.
