Lebanese Political Analysis: Examining the Impact of Le Drian’s Visit and the Outlook for Dialogue and Presidential Elections

2023-06-28 04:53:06

“Lebanese Debate”

A significant turn was recorded by the calls for internal dialogue to achieve the presidential elections, after the departure of the French presidential envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, to Lebanon, especially by “Hezbollah”, which modified the tone of its speech towards the opposition, which indicates the existence of data that lead to the belief that after the Le Drian reconnaissance station there will be no be as before. Is the time for the desired dialogue approaching?
The writer and political analyst, Nabil Boumonsef, does not agree with this description and believes that Le Drian did not move the deadlock in the presidential file, but on the contrary, he moved it negatively.

Political analyst Boumonsef reveals to the “Lebanon Debate” that “the bets on Le Drian’s round of pushing for dialogue, in light of Hezbollah’s talk of a pre-determined dialogue, are negative, especially since the party is asking for dialogue on the basis of acknowledging its presidential choice only, regardless of Regardless of his expressions and calm tone, because his reluctance to threaten is only aimed at wasting time and pushing the opposition into a corner by portraying it as refusing dialogue.

On the other hand, Bou Moncef considers that, “The opposition team is not embarrassed by this call, and it supports a presidential candidate, and rejects the concept of dialogue offered to it.”

Thus, it is difficult to expect any positive developments at the level of the presidential file, says Boumonsef, who calls for not building any expectations on Le Drian’s mission, as the party has no willingness for compromise or serious dialogue, coinciding with Paris not having any data that would allow it to push for the elections. the presidency in the foreseeable future, especially since France has lost its historical friends in Lebanon due to its position on the presidential file.

Regarding France’s allies, Bou Moncef explains that they are the Christians, who opposed the Paris presidential formula, which failed to maintain its relations with the opposition Christian forces, without succeeding in securing the election of its presidential candidate.

Thus, Bo Moncef reveals that “the French will not embark on a new adventure in Lebanon, especially since their partners in the “five-party meeting” are not on the same line, just as the party can no longer say that Paris supports its choice, and for this it has modified its political discourse.”

Hence, Bou Moncef adds that “there is no French presidential mission in Beirut,” explaining that “Le Drian made a reconnaissance tour, and its results were “frightening,” as it revealed the extent of the fission and vertical division between two political factions, knowing that Le Drian was assigned by President Emmanuel Macron to prepare A report on reality only, provided that the new French path is determined later, whether positively or negatively, in the sense that things cannot be preempted.

Bou Moncef concludes by emphasizing an established fact that, “The presidential election has returned to square one, but with the difference that there is a coherent team behind its candidate, which is the opposition team, which will remain steadfast at the present time, as it is clear that each team will remain on its side and there will be no change.” Or a change in presidential options and nominations.

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