2023-11-10 18:23:28
Early legislative elections are scheduled for November 22 in the Netherlands. After 13 years in power of Mark Rutte, the Dutch political landscape seems due for a makeover.
New leaders for the outgoing majority
With 17 parties represented in Parliament, the Netherlands has one of the most fragmented political landscapes in the world. This situation is linked to their type of voting, entirely proportional, which grants elected representatives to parties as long as they obtain more than 0.67% of the votes.
In view of this dispersion, the country has shown astonishing stability by reappointing the same Prime Minister four times at its head, with different coalitions, of course. After being shattered, the latestcomposed of four formations going from center to rightis the subject of a strong renewal within it in view of the next elections.
Rutte, who could well see himself succeeding Jens Stoltenberg at NATO General Secretariat, thus left room for Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius at the head of the conservative liberals of the VVD, the country’s leading party. Of Turkish origin, the one who currently holds the Justice portfolio has a chance of becoming Prime Minister despite the expected decline in her training, according to Benjamin Biard, researcher at CRISP. The lecturer at UCLouvain specifies thatshe has not ruled out governing with far-right parties in the event of accession to responsibilities.
The social liberals of D66a sort of Dutch equivalent of the Défi party, and the Christian Democrats of CDAboth partners of the VVD in government, also renewed their leaders. Both formations should record significant declines on November 22.
A young person chases another
These difficulties are explained in particular by the emergence of new parties on the Dutch political scene.
One March 2023, the BBB, this “Farmer-Citizen Movement” founded in 2019, achieved a breakthrough by obtaining nearly 20% of the votes during the provincial electionswell ahead of traditional training.
Posing as a defender of the world of rurality, he had capitalized on the rejection of the “nitrogen plan” of the government, specifies Benjamin Biard. This project was considered contrary to the interests of farmers by many voterss due to the strict environmental measures it contained.
The rapid rise of this party that is difficult to classifyparticularly due to its vague positions on migration issues, gave him hope of success during the legislative elections in November.
Geert Wilders’ PVV currently dominates the Forum for Democracy, a far-right group that emerged more recently, in the polls.
The old world is still resisting
In addition to the VVD which remains at a high level in the polls, a left-wing alliance, however, seems capable of competing for first place. Frans Timmermansa returnee from Dutch politics, was in fact designated at the head of a coalition between the socialists and the greens during the summer. Visibility and aura available to the former “number two” of the European Commission and architect of the Green Deal could work in its favoraccording to the UCLouvain researcher.
We will finally have to deal with the extreme rightof which Geert Wilders is the main figurehead. If she doesn’t seem to be in the best shapeit is now well established and could be called upon to play a role in negotiations to form the next government. These negotiations are likely to prove particularly complex.
The increasing fragmentation of the Dutch political landscape and the increasing volatility of the electorate however make the results difficult to anticipate, warns Benjamin Biard, who adds thatwe find the same phenomena in Belgium.
We will therefore have to wait until November 22 to find out if Dutch citizens opt for the new… or the old.
The summary
- Early legislative elections will be held on November 22 in the Netherlandsconcluding a thirteen-year cycle of Mark Rutte at the head of government.
- Government partiesin poor shape in the polls, renewed their leaders.
- Two young teams could create a surprise: the agrarians of the BBB and the centrists of the “New Social Contract”.
- It will also be necessary to take into account theleft alliance led by former European Commissioner Frans Timmermans, as well as with thefar right.
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