The annual Leonid meteor shower peaks on November 17-18, 2026, offering observers a modest display of fast-moving shooting stars.
Originating from the debris of comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, these meteors hit Earth’s atmosphere at 70 kilometers per second. While historic storms have produced thousands of meteors, this year’s event is expected to yield only 10 to 15 per hour.
Cometary Debris at 70 Kilometers per Second
The Leonids are defined by their velocity. As Earth intersects the orbital path of the Tempel-Tuttle comet, small particles slam into our atmosphere at approximately 70 kilometers per second, SwiftCurrentOnline reported. This high-kinetic energy event creates bright, rapid-fire streaks across the night sky.
The radiant point for this activity is the constellation Leo, specifically the “Sickle” pattern, according to Space. Despite the name, observers do not need to fixate on the constellation itself. These meteors can manifest across the entire celestial sphere.
Modest Yields Versus Historic Storms
Expectations for 2026 remain tempered when compared to the archives of mid-century astronomy. Sixty years ago, the Leonids produced a massive outburst of 144,000 meteors per hour, Space noted. The current event lacks the dense concentrations of cometary detritus that triggered those historic storms in 1966 or the more recent spikes observed in 1999, 2001, and 2002.
The current forecast places the maximum activity at 23:45 UTC on November 17, as reported by Space. For most, this translates to a quiet night, with only 10 to 15 meteors per hour possible under optimal conditions. The first-quarter Moon is scheduled to set around midnight, which will improve visibility by reducing ambient light interference during the pre-dawn hours.
Observational Best Practices
Technical equipment like telescopes or binoculars is unnecessary for this event. Because these meteors traverse such a large portion of the sky, the human eye remains the superior sensor. “These are so huge. They take up such a huge portion of the sky that they’re best observed with the naked eye,” Abigail Sadowski of the Kalium Observatory, affiliated with the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada, told SwiftCurrentOnline.
Sadowski said that winter conditions in Saskatchewan can actually improve data collection and visual clarity. “Typically, we like to observe in the winter when the air is a little bit steadier and we get typically less cloud rainstorms,” she said. However, the drop in temperature requires preparation. “Please dress warmly,” she told SwiftCurrentOnline.
Comet Tempel-Tuttle Dictates Future Leonid Outburst Cycles
While the 2026 display remains lean, the long-term cycle of the Tempel-Tuttle comet continues to dictate these events. The comet completes an orbit every 33⅓ years, and researchers are already looking toward the next window. Current projections suggest that the next major Leonid outburst could occur in 2034, with rates potentially reaching 2,000 meteors per hour, according to Space.
Until then, the 2026 shower serves as a baseline for annual debris monitoring. It is unclear whether this year’s modest activity will match the estimate of 10 to 15 meteors per hour on November 17-18.
Earlier coverage: Leonid Meteor Shower: Observers Face a Lean Display This Year
