The outbreak in Shanghai has begun to be brought under control, and local cases are falling. First, compare the figures for the two days in Shanghai. The day before yesterday (27th), Shanghai added 1,292 new local confirmed cases (including 858 confirmed cases from asymptomatic infections) and 9,330 asymptomatic infections . Among them, 432 confirmed cases and 9,140 asymptomatic infections were found in isolation and control, and the rest were found in the investigation of relevant risk groups.
That is, there are only two confirmed cases and 190 asymptomatic infections. It was found in the “relevant risk group screening” that this is social transmission, and the number has begun to fall to a relatively low level. If the 858 cases of asymptomatic persons turned into confirmed cases are subtracted, there were only 9,764 new infections detected on that day. This is the first time since April 4 that the number of new infections in Shanghai has been low. in ten thousand cases.
Since April 22, the number of new positive cases in Shanghai has been decreasing for six consecutive days. According to the figures of recent days, the effect of the closure of the city is more significant. The number of infected people on the 25th decreased by 10% compared with the previous day 3. On the 26th, it decreased by 20% compared with the previous day, and on the 27th, it decreased by 22% compared with the previous day. Not only did the actual number of infections fall, but the decline was expanding, which shows that the epidemic is gradually under control. The resumption of work and production in Shanghai has been started in batches. Friends who are worried about the Shanghai epidemic getting out of control can breathe a sigh of relief.
At the same time, there was another epidemic in Hangzhou. Hangzhou announced on the evening of the 27th that the city’s nucleic acid testing will be launched on the 28th. The city’s residents and other personnel in Hangzhou will take nucleic acid samples at least once every 48 hours. Those who are not completed on time will be reminded by a pop-up window when scanning the site code. Not to enter public places, not to take public transport, etc. To put it simply, as long as you are in Hangzhou, you need to do a nucleic acid test every 48 hours, otherwise you will not be able to go anywhere. In order to facilitate local residents, the Hangzhou Municipal Government will set up 10,000 free nucleic acid sampling points in the city. The epidemic in Hangzhou is only the first outbreak. On the 27th, 11 new local confirmed cases and 7 asymptomatic infections were reported in Hangzhou City. , why “labor the people and hurt the wealth”.
I have seen that many mainland netizens also have different opinions. There is a number that I can share with you. There are 10,000 nucleic acid testing sites in Hangzhou, with three staff members at each site, plus material supply, an average of 35,000 people, 400 yuan per capita wage expenditure, and 14 million daily investment in testing Yuan, plus test kits, each no more than 10 yuan, Hangzhou has a population of 12 million, mixed testing for ten people, 1 yuan per person, one test every 48 hours, and the daily cost of test kits is 6 million yuan, which is about 100,000 yuan per day Invest 20 million yuan (excluding laboratory costs) to do this normalized nucleic acid test for all employees.
Counting the numbers, it would cost 140 million to do seven full-staff tests, which seemed very expensive. However, Hangzhou’s GDP exceeded 1.8 trillion last year. If the epidemic is out of control, it will lose 34.5 billion if it is closed for seven days. If it is out of control, if it is sealed for a month, it will cost 150 billion, which is an astronomical figure. All staff are tested every two days. Citizens are a little more troublesome, but the out-of-control epidemic will cost the most.
When I chatted with a friend from the mainland, he said that Shenzhen has been doing this for a long time. After the outbreak of the epidemic in Hong Kong and the Lunar New Year in Shenzhen, the inspection was sometimes conducted every 24 hours. The inspection is carried out every 72 hours. By doing this, we can detect and control the epidemic early. In particular, cities with overseas entry points receive so many outsiders every day, and the risk is high. And in terms of cost, cities with a GDP of more than one trillion yuan should do more testing to “remove stupidity and make them smarter.”
Some friends from Shanghai also said that the outside world is lying flat, why does Shanghai insist on dynamic clearing? It is really uncomfortable to close the city and force the inspection, but lying down before you are ready, the cost of human life is quite staggering. Hong Kong has undergone a half-barrel-style dynamic clearing. This wave of epidemics has also killed more than 9,000 people. There is no need for the mainland to envy Hong Kong.
Shanghai is also not qualified to lie flat. Take a look at Singapore, which has the lowest mortality rate in the world. The rate of elderly people completing two shots of the vaccine is as high as 95%. The most deadly thing in Shanghai and Hong Kong is that the vaccination rate of the elderly is not ideal. In Shanghai, 62% of the population aged 60 and above completed the two-shot vaccination, and only 38% of the third booster shot. If the city is not closed, the forced inspection will be cut off. The chain of transmission, the mortality rate of the elderly population will be high. Hong Kong is currently 60 years old or above, and the vaccination rate of one shot is 83%, and the rate of two shots is 76%. As for the third shot, many elderly people have not been able to get the third shot because of the late start. Therefore, in the long run, if you want to treat the new crown as an endemic disease, no matter in Shanghai or Hong Kong, it is best for the elderly over the age of 60 to have 80 to 90% of the three injections, so that they can lie down. Otherwise, there will still be a heavy cost in human life.
Editor’s note: Mr. Lu Yongxiong took more than a month’s leave due to personal affairs. During this period, Li Tong, the editor-in-chief of “Bus News”, wrote “Bus Review”.
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Li Tong