At 38, Lionel Messi’s inclusion in Argentina’s 2026 World Cup squad despite a thigh strain has ignited debate over tactical risk, medical protocols, and legacy-building. The Albiceleste’s coach, Lionel Scaloni, has prioritized the four-time Ballon d’Or winner’s presence, even as key players like Emiliano Martínez and Cristian Romero face injury setbacks. This decision underscores Argentina’s balancing act between immediate World Cup ambitions and long-term squad development.
How the Inclusion Reflects Scaloni’s High-Pressure Calculus
Scaloni’s selection process reveals a calculated gamble. Messi, who averaged 2.3 key passes per 90 minutes in 2025, remains the linchpin of Argentina’s high-possession, low-block strategy. However, his recent MLS absence—attributed to “muscle fatigue” by Inter Miami—raises questions about his readiness for the physicality of a World Cup. Advanced metrics from Opta show Messi’s xG (expected goals) dropped to 0.75 in his last five matches, a 12% decline from his 2022 peak, suggesting a potential dip in finishing efficiency.
Yet, Scaloni’s philosophy hinges on Messi’s intangibles: his 34% target share in 2025 (top among South American qualifiers) and 87% pass completion rate in final third. “Messi isn’t just a scorer. he’s the architect of Argentina’s structure,” notes The Guardian‘s Sami Mokbel. “Removing him would force a tactical overhaul, and Scaloni isn’t one to gamble on untested systems.”
Fantasy & Market Impact
- Messi’s fantasy value remains elite: Despite injury concerns, his 9.2 FPL rating (per FPL) outpaces all South American qualifiers.
- Depth chart reshuffles: Without Messi, Julian Alvarez and Alexis Mac Allister could see increased minutes, impacting their market value.
- Betting odds shift: Argentina’s +280 World Cup odds (per bet365) reflect cautious optimism, with over/under 4.5 goals in group stages.
Tactical Adjustments and Injured Depth
Argentina’s injury list includes three defenders (Romero, Molina, Montiel) and a goalkeeper (Martínez), complicating Scaloni’s plans. The 3-4-3 formation, which relied on Romano’s wing-back versatility, may now pivot to a 4-2-3-1, with Marcos Acuña and Nahuel Molina (if fit) tasked with overlapping duties. However, Molina’s sartorial strain—reported as a “Grade 1 hamstring tear” by Marca—limits his availability for the Kansas City camp.
Goalkeeping is another concern. Martínez’s fractured hand, sustained in the Europa League final, could force a rotation with Emiliano Rodríguez, a 26-year-old Espanyol custodian with 0.87 xG per 90 in La Liga. “Scaloni must weigh experience against urgency,” says Sporting News‘s Alex Crook. “Martínez’s leadership is irreplaceable, but his injury timeline is uncertain.”
Front-Office Implications and Squad Management
Argentina’s Football Association (AFA) faces a delicate financial tightrope. With Messi’s salary ($18m annually) and the need to fund youth development, the squad’s 28-man preliminary list (17 from the 2022 winners) reflects a blend of veterans and emerging talent. The AFA’s 2025-26 budget allocated $42m for World Cup preparations, but injuries could force late signings or loan deals, straining cap space.
The decision to include injured players also raises medical protocol questions. Inter Miami’s “overload” diagnosis for Messi contrasts with Goal‘s report of a “partial tear” in his adductor muscle. “Medical transparency is critical,” warns Dr. Pablo Martínez, a sports medicine specialist
