Local BA.5 is here! Experts estimate that there will be another wave of epidemics at the end of July at the earliest. (File photo, photo by reporter Liao Xueru, synthesized by this newspaper.)
2022/07/06 17:47
[Reporter Lin Huiqin/Taipei Report]The first domestic case of Wuhan pneumonia (new coronavirus disease, COVID-19) Omicron BA.5, Huang Gaobin, vice president of the Hospital Affiliated to China Medical University, said that from the experience of Europe and the United States and other countries, it is estimated that There will be another wave of epidemics due to BA.5 at the earliest in the country at the end of July, but the scale will not be as large as in May and June. To avoid the rapid rise like in Europe and the United States, wearing a good mask is the key.
Huang Gaobin pointed out that the R0 value (basic reproduction number) of BA.1 and BA.2 is 8 to 12, that is, 1 person can infect 8 to 12 people, while BA.4 and BA.5 are more than 12 people, and the infectivity is higher. , As a result, since late June, the epidemic situation in European and American countries has been rising. Among them, BA.5 is stronger than BA.4, and the proportion of confirmed diagnoses in BA.5 is about 3 or 4 times that of BA.4. However, foreign literature shows that despite the potential to invade the respiratory tract, the symptoms are not more severe.
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According to the information of the command center, the first two cases of BA.5 in the country were diagnosed on June 25 and 30. Huang Gaobin believes that the overall development of the epidemic should be observed for at least two incubation periods, that is, 28 days. Judging from the experience of European and American countries, it takes about one month to one and a half months for the first local case to trigger a new wave of epidemics. Therefore, it is estimated that there may be another wave of epidemics in China as soon as the end of July.
However, Huang Gaobin pointed out that the current domestic diagnosis rate has exceeded 16%, and the three-dose vaccination rate has also reached 70%. The relative herd immunity has reached a certain level, so the new wave of epidemics will not reach the scale of the wave in May and June. The rapid rise of the epidemic in Europe and the United States is mainly due to the fact that masks are no longer worn. In China, masks should still be worn, especially when there are many summer vacation activities.
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