For decades, the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI) has served as a crucial benchmark for assessing national progress, moving beyond simple economic indicators to encompass health, and education. Now, a groundbreaking new study is poised to revolutionize how we understand human development – not just at the national level, but within countries, down to the local level. Researchers are leveraging the power of artificial intelligence and satellite imagery to create highly detailed estimates of the HDI, revealing disparities often hidden by broader national averages.
The research, published February 17, 2026, in Nature Communications, utilizes machine learning algorithms to analyze satellite data and generate HDI estimates for 61,530 municipalities and counties globally. This granular approach, presented in estimates using 10-by-10-kilometer grid tiles, offers a significantly more nuanced picture of human development than previously possible, highlighting how conclusions can shift with increased geographic detail. The findings underscore the importance of localized data in crafting effective policies and allocating resources.
The study’s methodology relies on generating estimates from satellite imagery, rather than relying on direct measurements in every location. This innovative technique allows for consistent assessments even in areas with limited traditional data sources. Heriberto Tapia, Research and Strategic Partnership Advisor at the UNDP Human Development Report Office (HDRO), co-authored the study, alongside collaborators from the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), and the University of British Columbia (UBC). This collaboration reflects a growing trend of partnerships between international organizations and leading academic institutions to advance human development metrics.
The HDI, for over 35 years, has been a cornerstone of the global conversation about progress, shifting the focus beyond purely economic measures. However, recognizing that human development varies significantly within countries, the HDRO has actively sought ways to generate more localized estimates. This new research represents a major step forward in that effort, offering policymakers and researchers a powerful new tool for understanding and addressing within-country inequalities.
Unlocking Local Insights with AI and Satellite Data
The ability to generate HDI estimates at such a granular level opens up a range of possibilities. Researchers can now identify specific areas within countries that are lagging behind in human development, allowing for targeted interventions and resource allocation. The study’s findings suggest that more than half of the global population was previously assigned to the incorrect Human Development Index quintile within each country due to the limitations of aggregated data. This highlights the potential for significant misallocation of resources based on traditional national-level assessments.
The research team has also made the satellite features used in their model publicly available, enabling others to increase the spatial resolution of administrative data detectable via imagery. This commitment to open data and collaboration further strengthens the impact of the study, allowing researchers and policymakers worldwide to build upon their findings. The full study in Nature Communications details the methodology and findings, providing a comprehensive resource for those interested in exploring the potential of this new approach.
Beyond the HDI: The Nature Relationship Index
The HDRO’s commitment to innovative metrics extends beyond the HDI. Currently, the organization is also developing the Nature Relationship Index (NRI), a new metric designed to measure the quality of a nation’s relationship with nature. Led by Erle Ellis, professor of geography and environmental systems, and a team of researchers across six continents, the NRI aims to assess contributions to the living world based on landscape management, sustainable resource use, and environmental protections. The NRI is slated for public release as part of the 2026 Human Development Report, with plans for annual updates.
The development of both the localized HDI estimates and the NRI demonstrate the HDRO’s dedication to expanding the scope and depth of human development measurement. By embracing new technologies and fostering collaboration, the HDRO is paving the way for a more nuanced and effective approach to understanding and addressing the challenges facing communities around the world.
As the HDRO continues to refine these metrics and expand their application, we can expect to see a more informed and targeted approach to development policy. The ongoing work to develop the NRI, and the release of the detailed HDI estimates, represent significant steps towards a more comprehensive understanding of human well-being and the complex relationship between people and the planet.
What are your thoughts on the use of AI and satellite imagery to measure human development? Share your comments below, and let’s continue the conversation.
