London Energy News: Oil prices surge despite rising crude stocks - Forecasts point to significant supply deficit

2023-09-14 10:14:25
London: Oil prices continued to rise, despite the swelling of crude stocks in the United States, with the market focusing on forecasts from both the IEA and OPEC of a significant deficit in global supply from the end of the year. Around 8:55 a.m. GMT (10:55 a.m. CET), the barrel of Brent BRENT Brent, or North Sea crude, is a variation of crude oil serving as a benchmark in Europe, listed on the InterContinentalExchange (ICE), a stock exchange specializing in energy trading. It became the first international standard for setting oil prices. from the North Sea, for delivery in November, took 0.73% to 92.55 dollars.

Its American equivalent, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI WTI West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also called Texas Light Sweet, is a variation of crude oil that serves as a standard in setting the price of crude and as a raw material for oil futures contracts with the Nymex (New York Mercantile Exchange). ), the stock exchange specializing in energy.), for delivery in October, gained 0.76% to $89.19.

The two crude benchmarks are still moving near their highest level in ten months.

“The oil market looks decidedly tight for the next two or three quarters, with supply constraints persisting in a context of strong demand,” comment ANZ analysts.

The day before, prices had barely fallen back after the publication of figures from the American Energy Information Agency (EIA) on commercial crude oil stocks in the United States, although they were increasing after weeks of sharp decline.

The agency’s weekly report showed that commercial crude oil inventories rose by 4 million barrels last week, well above the 2.5 million barrels analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg consensus. .

“The fact that this truly bearish report on stocks only gave rise to a brief temptation to sell testifies (…) to the mentality of the market,” underlines Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Energy.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a “significant supply shortage” of oil in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to its monthly report published on Wednesday.

The extension of 1.3 million barrels per day cuts in production and exports from Saudi Arabia and Russia until the end of the year “comes at a time when the global oil balance is tense , where stocks are decreasing and refiners are having difficulty meeting increased demand,” insists Tamas Varga.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) estimated that in the fourth quarter, demand could exceed crude supply by 3.3 million barrels, which would be a first in 16 years, in its monthly report published Tuesday.