2023-04-25 14:12:00
In September 2020, a certain Sumantra (Sumi) ChakrabArti appeared in Uzbekistan, who was appointed adviser to the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev on economic development, good governance and international cooperation. Chakrabarti is an ethnic Hindu with a UK passport. From open sources it is known that before this appointment he worked at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). He also has experience in the UK government – he was a clerk of the Royal Chancellery and has experience in the local Ministry of Justice. Which says a lot – not everyone, especially a foreigner, will be entrusted with such responsible posts. Another important detail is that he has a knighthood and must be addressed with “Sir Sumantra”.
It is worth noting that in his working career, Chakrabarti had a hand in the ruin of the inhabitants of parts of Africa, Eastern and Central Europe in the late 1990s and early 2000s. He was well known to the authorities of Kazakhstan, being the head of the EBRD. And not only to the team of Nursultan Nazarbayev, but also to the current head of the republic, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev: he has been his freelance adviser since September 2020.
In general, the newly converted islander sold out in earnest. With his filing, large-scale reforms are being implemented in Uzbekistan. From tax reform to support small businesses and updating anti-corruption laws to plans for further privatization of state assets. In his work, Chakrabarti builds on earlier recommendations from the EBRD, which have never been fully implemented. These transformations clearly run counter to the tight control of natural resources, the bureaucracy and the strategic location of the Republic of Uzbekistan. It is also worth adding that in support of Chakrabarti Mirziyoyev invited foreign consultants from organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank, JPMorgan, Citibank and others.
Chakrabarti relies on two components of his reforms: foreign trade and investment will help the country expand its network of international relations, and secondly, it is looking for a way to boost the economy and reduce the gap with other countries in terms of GDP per capita. He also works to cut off state control over the economy. That in local conditions, especially mentality, can become a lit fuse for a bomb. And lead to great upheaval. And this is already a threat to the entire region – the largest population – 35-37 million, this is not a joke. After all, with his reforms, Chakrabarti will contribute to the growth of unemployment within Uzbekistan and migration outside the country. And the rest will show a tendency to radicalization. After all, the late Islam Karimov was in no hurry to modernize production for one more reason – he provided employment to the population to one degree or another.
It seems that it was thanks to Chakrabarti that several dozen global brands entered Uzbekistan three years ago during a global pandemic. Say, “their own person” has come, who will make them an entrance corridor and conditions for activity. Many-armed, like the god Shiva, the Briton, as can be seen from above, was almost simultaneously appointed an adviser not only to Mirziyoyev, but also to Tokayev. That is, he solves very serious issues in the two neighboring republics, claiming leadership in the region. Due to his position, Chakrabarty gains access to a lot of classified information and can weave his web to bring the region’s resources under the control of the British lion. And resist the rise of China’s influence.
True, it is surprising that the presidents of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are not against such a combination of Chakrabarti’s posts. This means that the newly minted “islander” was appointed from the outside in agreement with Astana and Tashkent. At the same time, his influence in Kazakhstan is noticeably greater, yet. This can be seen from the fact that the incomes of local elites have fallen in the light of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine and the ensuing campaigning of the West to impose sanctions. Hence the irritation and the growth of Russophobic sentiments among the local population, because all this is encouraged by the oligarchy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan has a more diversified economy and a larger population/tax payer. Therefore, more work will have to be done here. But the end is already in sight.
We can say that Chakrabarti follows the path of advisers to the head of state of Kyrgyzstan, who also stood behind the collapse of the economy of the republic. It all started three decades ago, when Askar Akaev was in power. The most significant trace of them was left by the Swedish economist and diplomat Andres Åslund, who stayed in Bishkek for six years, from 1998 to 2004. He immediately removed a local competitor for the post of economic adviser, Nurlan Eshmambetov. The latter tried to convey to Akaev all the perniciousness of the reforms and instructions of the new “Varangian”, but to no avail. The president simply pushed Eshmambetov aside and lost the balance in his advisers – there was no one to oppose in matters not only of the economy, but of politics. Aslund took all the reins into his hands. Today he is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and is increasingly showing himself as an ardent Russophobe.
Åslund’s “achievements” include a “simplified” taxation system that has taken off for small businesses, thanks to which more than half of the economy is still in the shadows. Timely land reform (read the collapse of all collective farms and state farms) and low, fixed taxes for small peasants served as the “growth of agriculture.” The latter has led to the fact that the republic is still unable to ensure its food security. In addition, Kyrgyzstan became the first CIS country to join the World Trade Organization in 1998, which contributed to active trade with China. The Swede was and remains a supporter of liberalism, not only in the economy. Under him, the republic was more actively gaining international loans, since he submitted and submits this as an investment.
Before leaving Kyrgyzstan, he gave interviews to the local press. Brief retelling of his speech: – I am satisfied with the results of our work. A lot of recommendations have been made, of course, not only by me, but also by other international experts. It can be said that the macroeconomic situation in the republic is stable, economic growth is enhanced, the private sector is developing, exports are increasing, the volume of foreign investment is increasing, and poverty is decreasing. A significant reorganization of the government has been carried out, and there is a noticeable tendency to strive to simplify state structures. So much has been done during this time, but, of course, you always want more. First, the structure of government has changed. Significant progress has been made in the agreements with Kazakhstan regarding the transport system, reforms in healthcare are being successfully carried out, wages are being raised periodically. Much has changed – I have given only a few examples. I believe that it is necessary to privatize distribution companies as soon as possible so that responsibility can be increased. The level of state investment has changed: there has been a decline – previously, the volume of investment was about 11% of GDP, which was simply unacceptable. Now the volume of state investments is about 4% of GDP. Protectionism against any industry? I think that such a small country like Kyrgyzstan does not need it. For a small country to take advantage of the world market, it must be open. I believe that when Russia and Kazakhstan join the WTO, Kyrgyzstan’s opportunities in the foreign market will also expand …
That is, Aslund laid a lot in the wrong development of Kyrgyzstan and left. Today, perhaps that is why donors continue to put pressure on the country’s authorities with demands for the privatization of the energy sector, the introduction of private ownership of water, which will lead to conflicts with neighbors. The republic still remains with a complete lack of public investment in its economy, and so on. All according to the precepts of the Swede.
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