With just seven weeks remaining until Peru’s regional and municipal elections, Rafael López Aliaga of Renovación Popular and Carlos Bruce of Somos Perú have emerged as the frontrunners in the race for the mayoralty of Lima, according to recent polling data from Datum Internacional published by América Televisión.
The Evolving Electoral Landscape in Peru’s Capital
The latest public opinion surveys place López Aliaga at the head of the preference lists with 16%, followed by Carlos Bruce, the mayor of Surco, who registers at 13%. This margin underscores a contest across Lima Metropolitana as candidates enter the final stretch of campaigning.
Trailing the two leading figures are Daniel Urresti of Podemos Perú, Francis Allison of Avanza País, and Ricardo Belmont representing Obras.
Political analyst Luis Benavente noted the high stakes of the current cycle, observing that the municipal contest is “ultra competitive” due to the significant experience and distinct voter bases of the top contenders. Speaking on the dynamics of the race, Benavente pointed out that candidates like Bruce and Allison draw from a similar pool of liberal-leaning voters, whereas López Aliaga secures support primarily from a more conservative constituency.
Shifting Alignments and the Renovación Popular Ticket
The composition of the ballot shifted notably following the withdrawal of physician Luis Rubio, who initially registered as the mayoral candidate for Renovación Popular. Rubio stepped down from the ticket in July, a move that paved the way for López Aliaga—who had been elected as a representative in the chamber of the Congress but did not collect his credential and the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) accepted his resignation—to step in as the head of the municipal list by registering as a candidate for lieutenant mayor to navigate electoral regulations regarding immediate re-election.
A Datum poll featured on the program Cuarto Poder revealed that 60% of surveyed residents believe Rubio withdrew from the race specifically to allow López Aliaga to “encabece” the municipal ticket, while 21% remained undecided on the matter. Only 19% accepted the explanation that the former candidate stepped down due to personal reasons.
Carlos Bruce publicly challenged the legitimacy of the maneuver in statements to Canal N, characterizing the candidacy as a constitutional infraction. Esa prohibición de la reelección está en la Constitución y el jurado considera que ellos no deben defender la Constitución, que eso es un tema del Congreso,
Bruce stated, criticizing the rapid fluctuation in voter numbers following the ticket modification.
Geographic Strongholds and Decisive Voter Segments
Voter distribution across Lima’s diverse districts reveals distinct territorial loyalties. López Aliaga secures his strongest backing in Lima Moderna, followed by Lima Sur, with lower numbers recorded in the eastern districts.
Conversely, Bruce reaches his peak performance in Lima Moderna as well, capturing 25% of the intended vote in that zone, alongside solid margins in the central districts and in the south. However, the former Minister of Housing, Construction, and Sanitation records lower figures in Lima Norte and Lima Este.
Further down the ballot, a second tier of candidates includes former congresswoman Susel Paredes of Ahora Nación and former Health Minister and former San Borja mayor Alberto Tejada of Acción Popular with 4%. Candidates such as Samuel Daza, mayor of Ancón running with Fuerza Popular, and Edgardo del Pomar of the PPC register under 2%.
Uncommitted Voters and the Weight of Upcoming Debates
Despite the clarity at the top of the polls, a substantial portion of the electorate remains undecided or inclined toward null or blank votes. Datum reports that blank and invalidated ballots stand at 11.8%, while undecided voters account for 13.5% of the total surveyed population.
Analysts emphasize that this uncommitted bloc leaves ample room for shifts before election day. Benavente underscored historical precedents in Lima’s municipal elections where formal debates served as turning points for public perception. Pointing to past races, including the 2010 and 2014 campaigns, he suggested that head-to-head confrontations often crystallize voter preferences when frontrunners hold narrow leads.
As the campaign moves toward its final weeks, the focus turns to how the leading campaigns will engage the remaining undecided voters and address competing structural challenges across the capital.
