Tianfeng International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that since the end of March, China’s Android mobile phone brand has revised down its sales forecast of 100 million mobile phones again, which will also impact the 5G processor manufacturer Qualcomm (QCOM-US), MediaTek (2454-TW), among which, mobile phone chip factories have recently cut orders in the second half of the year, MediaTek has cut orders by 30-35%, and Qualcomm has also cut prices by 30-40% in addition to cutting orders. The mobile phone industry is facing a slow peak season in the second half of the year.
Guo Mingchi said that since the survey published on March 31, major Chinese Android brands have once again cut orders for about 100 million units. Currently, it is estimated that Xiaomi / Oppo / Vivo / Transsion / Honor smartphone shipments in 2022 are estimated to be about 160 million / 160 million / 115 million / 70 million / 55 million.
MediaTek and Qualcomm also cut orders for 5G chips in the second half of this year in response to customers’ downward revisions to sales forecasts. Among them, MediaTek has cut orders in the fourth quarter by 30-35%, mainly for mid-to-low-end chips. Shipment estimates are unchanged, but other high-end 8 series orders in the second half of the year are also adjusted by about 10-15%.
In addition, Qualcomm also expects to reduce the existing S8 Gen1/Gen1 + price by 30-40% after starting to ship the SM8550 at the end of this year, in order to clear the inventory.
When Chinese Android brand factories continued to cut orders, Samsung also lowered its mobile phone shipment target for this year by about 10% to 275 million units. The overall iPhone shipment momentum is still better than Android.
Ming-Chi Kuo believes that the Chinese Android brand cut orders, which means that demand in China, Europe and emerging markets is weak, and the lead time of 5G chips is longer than that of general components. Therefore, MediaTek and Qualcomm have also successively lowered orders in the fourth quarter and the second half of the year, which means demand It may not improve until the first quarter of next year.
Since 5G chips and optical lenses are all key components of mobile phones, as the shipment of Android brands in China may not be prosperous in the peak season, the shipments of 5G chips and optical lens related companies will also be affected. In particular, the impact of 5G chip orders is higher than that of cameras. Components, the reasons include the accelerated decline in ASP due to competition, the accelerated decline in revenue and profit, and the increase in the price of high-end processes will further squeeze the profits of 5G chips.
Ming-Chi Kuo also expects that the market consensus on MediaTek and Qualcomm’s revenue and profit forecasts from the third quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year may be further revised.