US Intelligence Indicates Russian Officials Have Had Doubts About Large-Scale Ukraine Invasion
Intercepted communications obtained by the US reveal that some Russian officials are concerned that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine will prove costlier and more difficult than President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin leaders believe, according to four people familiar with the matter. information.
Three of the sources said those officials include military and intelligence agents.
The officials also complained that their plans were discovered and publicly exposed by Western nations, two of the sources said, citing intercepted communications.
There is no evidence that these officials oppose the overall plan or rebel against Putin’s orders, two of the sources said. Another source familiar with US intelligence noted that Russia has a professional military that is expected to carry out Putin’s orders effectively.
Still, Russia’s defense personnel believe that will be difficult, a senior European official said. “In the assessments, we see that it is clear that some people on the defense side [rusa] they don’t really understand what the plan of action is,” the official said, adding that assessments suggest defense personnel think “it’s a very difficult plan of action to maintain.”
Another of the sources familiar with the intelligence said the way Russian planning has evolved and expanded in the past two months suggests concerns have been heard by senior Russian officials.
Officials told CNN on Saturday that Putin has assembled 70% of the military personnel and weapons on Ukraine’s borders that he would need for a full-scale invasion of the country. Some assessments indicate it may be planning to try to take Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, they said, and the city could fall within 48 hours of a full-scale ground and air invasion.
Another possibility, the officials said, is that Putin decides on a multi-front operation, sending forces from multiple directions across Ukraine and thus rapidly fracturing the Ukrainian military’s ability to fight as a cohesive force, a classic Russian military strategy.