French President Emmanuel Macron wrapped up his three-day visit to China on April 7, during which he visited Guangzhou and held talks with President Xi Jinping. While images of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appeared only in the context of trilateral talks between China, France and the EU, the joint visit aimed to demonstrate European solidarity, particularly on the Ukraine issue. However, analysts suggest the goal was not achieved as China did not use its influence on Russia to mediate the conflict. Von der Leyen warned China against arming Russia in public remarks following the talks, and while China expressed its commitment to finding a political solution, it did not specifically mention Russia’s role in the crisis.
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On April 7, Macron spoke to students at Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou.
French President Macron ended his three-day trip to China yesterday (7th) after visiting the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou. From the red carpet in front of the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, to the interaction with celebrities from the capital’s film and television culture, to the Guqin performance accompanied by President Xi Jinping, China did everything possible to welcome Macron’s arrival.
The images of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen who came to China with Macron almost only appeared in the context of the tripartite talks between China, France and the EU.
Macron and von der Leyen’s joint visit to China is considered to be playing red and white faces respectively, aiming to complement each other to show European solidarity, especially on the Ukraine issue, they all hope that China will play a positive role.
However, analysts generally believe that this goal has not been achieved. Apart from passing a long list of economic and trade cooperation agreements with China, little has been achieved in urging China to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
“The joint visit, meant to demonstrate European solidarity, instead highlights a confident EU leader and a member state eager to show off at the expense of EU unity,” said European think tank Institute for Security and Development Policy. Dr. Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, for Security & Development Policy, said.
“China has influence on Russia, and Russia is increasingly dependent on China’s support, but China will not use this influence on the Ukraine issue, just to obtain other concessions from Sino-Russian relations.” American think tank Andrew Small, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said.
“It’s important for Europe to show that it has exhausted all avenues and that China is showing no sincerity.”
Macron, von der Leyen strongly promote talks
French President Emmanuel Macron will arrive in China for a three-day visit on April 5, 2023. European Union President Ursula von der Leyen will also visit at the same time.
Macron urged Xi Jinping on Thursday (6th) to use his influence to communicate with Russia to help end the war in Ukraine.
“I know I can count on you to bring Russia back to rationality and bring everyone back to the negotiating table.” Macron told the media before the closed-door meeting. Next to him sat President Xi.
He added, “We not only want an end to the conflict, but also respect for the sovereignty of the Ukrainian state. These are the only conditions for a lasting peace.”
After the meeting between Macron and Xi Jinping, von der Leyen held a personal news conference and publicly warned Beijing not to send weapons to Russia to aid its war in Ukraine.
“The arming of an aggressor is a clear violation of international law… which would greatly damage relations between the EU and China”.
Previously, China was questioned about sending weapons to Russia, but China denied it.
Feng Rusha believes that von der Leyen at least outlined the bottom line of the EU and let China know the consequences if it provides weapons to Moscow. “This may persuade Beijing to start playing a constructive role.”
In the public information of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the above speeches of Macron and von der Leyen were not quoted. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that they all appreciated China’s efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis politically, and unanimously stated: “China is not the maker of the Ukrainian crisis.”
Von der Leyen held a personal news conference after the meeting, warning Beijing not to send weapons to Russia.
China does not mention Russia
As for what the outside world expects, whether Beijing is willing to exert influence on Moscow, Chinese officials have not stated, or even mentioned Russia.
Before holding a closed-door meeting with Macron, Xi Jinping reiterated that “China insists on persuading peace talks and political solutions”, and said that “peace talks should be restarted as soon as possible, in accordance with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, and take into account the legitimate security concerns of all parties.”
He also reiterated his opposition to the use of nuclear weapons, biological and chemical weapons, and armed attacks on civilian nuclear facilities such as nuclear power plants.
The above elaboration does not exceed China’s previous twelve-point position on the political solution to the Ukraine crisis.
When the leaders of China and Russia met in Beijing in February 2022, they declared that the cooperation between the two countries had “no end”. Shortly thereafter, Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. In March this year, Xi Jinping visited Moscow to meet with Putin, which once again strengthened Sino-Russian relations. China issued a twelve-point position at the end of February, calling for a political solution to the Klan crisis. But it seems that there is a dilemma. On the one hand, going against Moscow’s wishes will damage Sino-Russian relations. On the other hand, continuing to express support for Moscow in the case of Putin’s attempt to escalate the war will put China in a quagmire.
President Putin said on March 25 that he would deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Ukraine’s neighbor Belarus.
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On April 7, Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Macron visited Guangzhou Pine Garden.
On April 7, Macron met with students in Guangzhou.
Xi Jinping willing to talk to Zelensky?
According to the news agency, von der Leyen stated at a press conference after the talks that the twelve-point position on the political solution to the Ukrainian crisis.
“It’s interesting to hear President Xi reiterate his willingness to talk when the conditions and time are right. I think that’s a positive,” she said.
This point does not appear in the information released by the Chinese government. China did not accept Zelensky’s invitation for talks with Xi in March.
Zhu Zhiqun, a professor of international relations at Bucknell University in the United States, believes that China has not denied it so far. “This is actually a small breakthrough.”
He believes that after China proposed a 12-point peace framework, Western countries such as the United States threw cold water on it, dampening China’s enthusiasm for mediating the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. “If the West speaks more words of encouragement, what the Chinese call ‘the right time’ should come soon.”
Dr. Feng Rusha believes that even though the EU has stated its bottom line, the current lack of unity within the EU has caused damage to its influence on China.
“Member states have different opinions on how much to strengthen their stance on China, which gives Beijing room to continue to maintain a balance,” Feng Rusha said. “Therefore, there is no hope for China to take responsible actions at present.”
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russian cynicism
Moscow has poured cold water on the prospect of Beijing mediating the conflict in Ukraine during the visit of French and European leaders to China.
Moscow said on Thursday it had “no choice” but to continue its offensive against Ukraine, according to AFP.
“There is no doubt that China has the commanding potential to mediate (the conflict) very effectively … but the situation in Ukraine is complex and, so far, there is no prospect of a political solution,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov (Dmitry Peskov) said.
After a lapse of one day, Moscow once again expressed its position on the China-France-Europe talks. According to Archyde.com, the Kremlin stressed that China and Russia have their own “rich relationship” and questioned whether China would change its stance on the conflict in Ukraine under external pressure.
“China is a very serious and powerful country with its own sovereign status … not the kind of country that changes positions quickly under external influence,” Peskov told reporters.
The Russian media has ridiculed the achievements of the leaders of France and Europe. Channel One, the state broadcaster, said Macron was “satisfied in proper style” but “has the habit of keeping things quiet and what Macron hears has been said before”.
The TV station quoted Western media’s comments on Macron’s failure to persuade Xi Jinping, saying: “This is what happens when a vassal state tries to formulate an independent policy, and the results are not very good.”
As for Von der Leyen, she “planned to have a tough dialogue with Xi Jinping, but in the end she did not become tough”, Channel 1 believes, “What Europe is looking for in China is not only a mediator in the Ukrainian conflict, but also an economic lifebuoy.”
In conclusion, the joint visit by French President Macron and European Commission President von der Leyen to China may not have achieved its intended goal of urging China to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Despite passing several economic and trade agreements with China, little was achieved on this matter. However, there were some positive signs, with Xi Jinping reiterating his willingness to talk when the conditions and time are right. The lack of unity within the EU and the cynical response from Moscow have hindered progress, but there remains hope for a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis. It remains to be seen whether China and Russia will change their stance on the conflict under external pressure.