Emmanuel Macron is announced at the head of the first round of the presidential election, more than ever hounded by Marine Le Pen, a good distance from Jean-Luc Mélenchon, according to the latest surveys from five polling institutes on Friday, two days before the election.
The outgoing Head of State collects 26% of voting intentions for the Elabe, OpinionWay and Ifop Fiducial institutes, 26.5% according to Ipsos Sopra Steria and 27% according to the Harris Interactive study. Ms. Le Pen is given 22% by OpinionWay, 23% by Ipsos, 24% for Ifop and Harris Interactive and 25% for Elabe, or one point from the Head of State.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon progresses
Given the margin of error, the order of arrival on Sunday seems particularly uncertain, especially since Emmanuel Macron’s curve of voting intentions has continued to fall in recent days, unlike that of Ms. Le Pen, constantly rising. In 2017, Emmanuel Macron won 24.01% of the votes cast against 21.30% for his far-right competitor.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, given at 16.5% (Ipsos), 17% (OpinionWay, Ifop), 17.5% (Elabe) or even 18% (Harris Interactive), also continues to progress but seems beyond the reach of the second round.
In the second round, in the event that Emmanuel Macron faces Marine Le Pen, all the studies still give a slight advantage to the Head of State, but constantly shrinking and within the margin of error.
Zemmour Pécresse elbow-to-elbow
Only OpinionWay gives a comfortable lead to the outgoing president (54% against 46%), while Ipsos grants him 53% of the voting intentions (against 47%), Ifop 52% (against 48%), Harris interactive 51, 5% (against 48.5%) and Elabe 51% (against 49%).
The five institutes also highlight a match between Valérie Pécresse and Eric Zemmour for fourth place in the first round. Ifop and Opinionway place the two candidates equally (9%), while Elabe, Harris Interactive and Ipsos give a slight advantage to Mr. Zemmour (8.5% against 8% for the first two; 9% against 8 .5% for the third).
Participation in the first round is estimated between 70% and 74% for Elabe and Ipsos. OpinionWay is counting on 71% and Harris Interactive and Ifop on 73%. Although up compared to the last few days, it remains lower than the participation of the first round of 2017 which was established at 77.77%.