2023-04-21 03:14:05
After an absence of nearly four years, French President Macron led a huge business delegation to visit China from April 5th to 7th with his counterpart, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Similar to the two visits before the epidemic, Macron tried to continue to develop a strategic partnership with China, and guided by the EU’s de-risking (de-risking) strategy, to promote economic and cultural exchanges between the two sides, especially in Airbus, Orders for agricultural products, etc.
This was originally a normal French-Chinese diplomacy with courtesy, but it caused an uproar when Macron was interviewed by the media afterwards. Macron said that Europe should keep a distance from potential conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region, mainly referring to the Taiwan Strait. If the Taiwan issue escalates, it is absolutely not in the interests of the EU. At the same time, the EU should not follow Washington or Beijing. outside the third pole.
▌Previous summary:
Macron’s speech on the Taiwan issue has aroused different voices in the United States, Europe and other places.some people think it’s franceGaullistismSome people say that his Eurocentrism is only to divert dissatisfaction with the domestic pension reform, and some people secretly criticize Macron for skipping the United States, and intending to cooperate with the East is short-sighted and short-sighted. On the other hand, China praised him for bringing a new atmosphere to China-EU relations, and some people even labeled his remarks as abandoning Taiwan, which aroused the concerns of allies.
In the face of criticism and doubts from the outside world, Macron did not explain much, while the Elysee Palace emphasized that the French policy has not changed. A few days later, Macron gave a speech in The Hague, the Netherlands, mentioning that European sovereignty has entered a new era, emphasizing that Europe can choose partners and shape its own destiny. He also reiterated his position on both sides of the Taiwan Strait: support Taiwan to maintain the status quo and stick to the one China principles, with an emphasis on peaceful solutions.
Macron also said that when the People’s Liberation Army held a military exercise in protest against Cai Maihui, the French frigate La Prairial crossed the Taiwan Strait to defend the freedom of navigation under international law. This move has fully demonstrated French policy. Originally, the controversy could have stopped here, because Paris has never talked about protecting Taiwan, so how can there be talk of abandoning Taiwan?
What Macron really wanted to express was a vision of Europe’s future, but it exposed Europe’s fragile side.
▌Is Macron’s “strategic autonomy” “suicide”?
In Macron’s view, Europe is too dependent on world powers, putting Europe at a disadvantage, and must strive to become a rule-maker rather than a rule-taker. His position has many supporters in Europe, and even turned into the official policy of the EU, such as the EU’s attempt to mine rare earths and reduce imports from China. There are also people who worry that if they follow Washington’s footsteps, the EU will inevitably conflict with China. They should promote strategic independence and avoid being influenced by China.
Looking further, when France assumes the rotating presidency of the EU in 2022, Macron will propose a grand security innovation plan——The EU Strategic Compass, approved by EU members. The guide describes national defense as one of the key elements for Europe to maintain its sovereignty. The specific content includes the establishment of a theater rapid reaction force of about 5,000 people, actions to strengthen the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP), and regular military exercises.
Macron also suggested defining strategic European sovereignty to help EU member states identify common threats and goals even if they are not part of NATO. The problem is that there are disputes within the EU over the so-called common threat. For example, Central and Eastern European countries believe that Russia is a threat, but Western European countries prefer to associate with Russia.It can also be seen that until the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Macron still believed in Putin’s military exercises and insisted on the cooperation of the four countries of France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia.Normandy modelTalks can bring peace.
However, Putin’s lightning march into Uzbekistan broke the illusion of peace in Europe. Especially for Central and Eastern Europe (except Hungary) that was once covered by the Soviet Iron Curtain, they believe that many Western European leaders are lost in the supply of cheap Russian natural gas, and they are too naive to view the nature of Putin’s regime. When the war breaks out, Macron and German Chancellor Scholz’s compromise strategy was criticized, which further reduced the influence of the German-French axis on Europe.
Over the past year, members such as Poland, Sweden, and the Baltic states have been pushing for change in the EU. These countries believe that the tragedy in Ukraine shows that their assessment of Putin’s regime is correct, and that Western European countries have not listened to them. Although Paris and Berlin have agreed that Europe needs to unite to deal with the crisis, they have done too little – for example, the EU strategy The 5,000-strong theater rapid response force mentioned in the guide is not enough to resist Russia at all-it is more than enough to deal with peacetime, but it is pale and weak in the face of the Russian army.
Some central and eastern European countries, which have been advocating closer ties with the United States, especially in defense, and pushing for a tougher stance against Beijing, were uneasy with Macron’s anti-U.S. comments. In mid-April, before his visit to Washington, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated that Europe should establish a strategic partnership with the United States, instead of emphasizing the so-called strategic autonomy, and emphasizing that Poland will be the leader of the new Europe.
The reason why Poland is so confident is because it occupied the moral high ground in the Ukrainian War of Resistance. Judging from the foreign aid received by Ukraine so far, Poland has promised to provide more than 3 billion euros, ranking fifth in terms of per capita GDP, and the military aid is ranked fourth. Compared with old Europe, Germany’s provision of more than 3 billion military aid is considered a bright spot , but it accounts for a negligible amount of its GDP, while the aid provided by France is only more than 1 billion, which is completely unlike European leaders.
Looking at the United States, Ukraine has received a total of nearly 13 billion euros in foreign aid so far, and the United States has accounted for 7 billion yuan. The strong support of Washington has made the European Union feel grateful. Even France cannot refuse, bringing the relationship between the two sides of the Atlantic back to the traditional one. Cold War mode. In other words, the Ukrainian war of resistance proved that only the United States can provide a certain degree of guarantee. If it follows the strategic autonomy of the German-French axis, it will be tantamount to strategic suicide.
Therefore, after Russia invaded Ukraine, most of the European Union is taking measures to encourage the United States to return to Europe, and welcomes the United States to have more troops stationed in Europe. Under the pressure of Putin’s army, many EU members have no self-defense capability at all and can only rely on the United States. Therefore, if Macron really wants to establish European strategic autonomy, then he should take practical actions, that is, provide more military aid to Ukraine. To demonstrate France’s willingness to defend Europe.
▌On the contrary, Europe cannot live without the United States?
A fact that Macron and France cannot deny is that NATO has abandoned the original tripwire (tripwire) force strategy. The so-called tripwire force refers to the deployment of a small number of military forces in the target area. These forces are not enough to fight against potential enemies, but they may make the enemy consider that once the battle results in casualties, they will be retaliated by the tripwire force country, thus dispelling the possibility of attack. meaning.
After Russia invaded Ukraine, NATO judged that the Putin regime had basically broken its face with the West. If it really wanted to attack European countries, such as the Baltic countries, the deployment of tripwire troops alone would not be enough to deter it. Considering that the United States may not To confront Russia head-on for dozens or hundreds of casualties, they instead plan to deploy a high-intensity rapid-response force in Central and Eastern Europe, expanding to 300,000 troops to achieve the deterrent function. The United States is also in Poland, The Baltic States, Germany, Italy and other countries increased their military strength. However, in this regard, France only boasted about the establishment of the European Union’s joint military force, as if it were an outsider in the entire European situation.
In addition, due to the inconsistency within the EU and the lack of mutual trust, the German-French axis wants to lead, but is unwilling to pay too much. Although people of insight know that continuing to rely on the United States will bring long-term risks, and it is difficult to avoid Macron’s so-called vassal situation, Europe still cannot formulate sufficient measures to prepare for war, highlighting the dilemma brought by Europe’s long-term peace. As long as Europe cannot lead itself, American domination is inevitable.
Furthermore, since the turn of the millennium, the overall strength of the United States relative to the European Union has become stronger. Take GDP as an example. In 2008, the EU surpassed the US’s US$14 trillion with US$16 trillion. After that, the US widened the gap with the EU, and now it is about 1.3 times that of the EU plus the UK. Not to mention that the US’s defense budget and pursuit of innovative technologies are beyond the reach of Europe.
In general, the disparity in power increases the dominance of the United States in the transatlantic alliance as the United States rises and Europe falls. The Ukrainian Anti-Japanese War made the whole world see Europe’s security weaknesses. Under the leadership of the Biden administration, the United States is very willing to use its growing influence, but the greater the influence of Washington, the less attention is paid to Europe. What worries his colleagues the most.
To be sure, strategic autonomy will continue to be debated within the EU, but endless debate will only drag down reforms, and the EU needs to take practical steps towards becoming a more reliable and powerful force. Countries such as France, Germany, and Justice should know that with greater power comes greater responsibility, and at the same time greater sacrifice. Only after winning the trust of Central and Eastern European countries can they truly unite to establish European strategic autonomy.
What’s more, no matter how long the Ukrainian War of Resistance lasts, it is already a trend for the United States to shift its strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific. What Europe really needs to consider is the role it will play in future US-China conflicts. Because Russia is still eyeing it, the so-called third pole away from conflict is simply a dream. No matter how the US policy changes, Europe needs stronger military capabilities, not only to defend itself, but also to be a trusted partner of Washington.
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