Thursday, November 5, warning of heavy rain that could spark thunderstorms, dnoticias.pt reported.
JM-Madeira.pt reported that the yellow alert extends from midnight to 3 p.m. Friday and again from noon Saturday to 3 a.m. Sunday, with wind gusts climbing to 90 km/h on the south coast and 110 km/h in the mountains. The storm has already grounded maritime travel: SAPO reported that Porto Santo Line canceled Saturday and Sunday ferry sailings between Madeira and Porto Santo, citing safety risks to passengers and the vessel.
Behind the warnings lies a significant volume of water. Meteored Portugal projects the island could accumulate roughly 180 mm of rain between Friday night and Monday morning, with totals potentially exceeding 220 mm by Monday midnight. That deluge follows a dry October, a shift SIC Notícias noted IPMA has flagged as a sharp turn for November across both the mainland and the archipelago, where heavy rain is expected from Friday.
Funchal Braces for Showers and Swells
In the capital, IPMA forecasts skies with periods of heavy cloud cover, becoming generally overcast by day’s end, dnoticias.pt reported. Showers could turn strong from morning, passing to rain periods later, with conditions favorable for thunderstorms from the morning hours. The yellow warning specifically targets the south coast and mountainous regions for heavy rain between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. Thursday. Winds will blow weak to moderate from the south quadrant, up to 30 km/h. At sea, the north coast faces north/northwest waves of 1.5 to 2 meters, while the south coast sees southwest waves under 1 meter, gradually rising to 1 to 1.5 meters in the western part. Sea temperatures hold steady at 22 to 23 degrees Celsius.
The Ferry That Won’t Sail This Weekend
Porto Santo Line announced Wednesday that trips on November 7 and 8 are canceled. The company stated the decision came because of
“bad weather conditions forecast for the Madeira archipelago, which could compromise the safety of its passengers and the ship.”
SAPO reported. The cancellations align with extended yellow warnings: the south coast and mountains remain under alert for rain from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. Thursday, from midnight to 3 p.m. Friday, and from noon Saturday to 3 a.m. Sunday, JM-Madeira.pt reported. The yellow alert represents the least severe of IPMA’s three-level warning scale, issued when conditions pose risks to weather-dependent activities. During the Saturday-to-Sunday window, the south coast also faces wind gusts up to 90 km/h, while mountain regions could see gusts up to 110 km/h. The north coast and Porto Santo island face separate yellow warnings for heavy, persistent rain possibly accompanied by thunderstorms from noon Saturday to 3 a.m. Sunday, plus strong wind gusts up to 90 km/h from noon Saturday to midnight Sunday.
When Polar Air Meets the Atlantic
IPMA meteorologist Maria João Frada told SIC Notícias that this mass will be replaced by tropical air from the Atlantic associated with a depression positioned west of the continent.
“This air mass we have over the continent is a polar air mass coming from the northeast, from the interior of the European continent, and it will shift to coming from the west.”
She added that Friday will bring a slight rise in maximum temperatures as the tropical Atlantic air arrives with precipitation and cloud cover:
“On Friday, we will have a small rise in maximum temperature values, because with the precipitation and cloud cover will come a tropical air mass from the Atlantic.”
Winds will tend from the south quadrant starting Friday, with minimum temperatures expected to rise significantly, between 5 and 9 degrees, by Saturday. Maximum temperatures should vary between 16 and 24 degrees in the interior, 22 to 24 degrees in Alentejo, the Tagus Valley and the Algarve, and 16 to 20 degrees in the remaining territory, SIC Notícias reported.
How 220 Millimeters Rewrites the Week
Meteored Portugal warns that forecasts can shift as models adjust, but current projections show Madeira bearing the brunt of an atmospheric river while the Azores face a depression more directly. Both archipelagos should expect rain over the coming days, but Madeira should be more affected, the outlet noted. It expects maximum accumulations around 40 mm by 9 p.m. Friday, climbing past 180 mm between Friday night and Monday morning, and potentially surpassing 220 mm by Monday midnight. The atmospheric river will combine with a cold front to gain more expression between Saturday and Sunday. While Meteored Portugal initially expected near-total dissipation of rain early Thursday, dnoticias.pt reports the updated IPMA guidance keeps heavy showers and thunderstorm risk through Thursday’s daylight hours. Between Sunday and the start of Monday, an improvement in weather is expected as the rain begins to dissipate.
Despite the deluge, temperatures remain mild, with the rain arriving alongside temperate conditions rather than a cold snap—a wet but temperate end to the week after October’s dry spell.
