Northern California faces a massive North Pacific swell this weekend, as a series of intense storms directed by a southward-shifting jet stream promise to deliver deep-water waves reaching 40 feet or more in face height.
The first pulse is expected to peak on Saturday, followed by a second swell on Monday.
The arrival of these waves marks a significant turn for the region, which has experienced a relatively slow start to the season. The jet stream has moved away from the Gulf of Alaska, creating a clear path for storms to track toward the mainland, Swellnet reported.
The magnitude of the incoming swell is substantial, with open ocean readings projected at 6 meters at 17.8 seconds from a 280-degree angle. If these forecasts hold, deep-water reefs will see waves measuring 20 to 25 feet by a surfer’s standard, translating to face heights exceeding 40 feet, according to Swellnet.
“The El Niño hype is real,” said Peter Mel, who told KQED he plans to assess conditions Saturday morning before deciding to paddle out. “The ocean is extra alive.”
The meteorological setup involves a low-pressure system deepening as it passes north of Hawaii before heading toward the California coast. While the primary concern for many observers is the pure size of the surf, the associated southerly winds remain a critical variable.
Swellnet notes that while there is an outside chance a pre-frontal trough could bring southerly winds to the coast, the current outlook favors light and variable winds as the storm system retreats to the north.
Bianca Valenti expressed anticipation for the event. “I’m really excited to see what happens on Saturday,” she told KQED. “It doesn’t get this big very often.”
While Northern and Central California will bear the brunt of the energy, Southern California is expected to receive a smaller share of the swell, though the westerly angle of the waves will likely allow them to penetrate into protected coastal corners.
| Swell Event | Peak Timing | Forecast Characteristic |
|---|---|---|
| First Pulse | Saturday | 6m @ 17.8s (Very West) |
| Second Pulse | Monday | Slightly smaller, less period |
Monday’s secondary swell is currently projected to track slightly further north than the initial system. This shift suggests that while the wave heights may be marginally lower and the period shorter, the wind conditions are likely to be more favorable for the coast.
“I’m really excited to see what happens on Saturday,” Valenti told KQED. “It doesn’t get this big very often.”
