Kelsey plum poised To Explode Against Mercury: Expert WNBA Predictions
June 1, 2025 • 11:02 am • 4 min read
After a trade moved Her to a team outside championship contention in the off-season, Guard Kelsey Plum may have faded from the casual WNBA fan’s radar. That would be a serious oversight. Plum’s talent is not to be denied; she has elevated the Los Angeles Sparks, injecting excitement into five of their first seven games this season.
The onyl times Plum has struggled were in match-ups against two of the WNBA’s stingiest defenses. The Phoenix Mercury, with their current roster composition, do not fit into that elite defensive category.
Earlier this season, Plum already demonstrated her scoring capabilities against Phoenix. Expert Mercury vs. Sparks predictions suggest she is primed for another potent performance, particularly given the Mercury will be without one of their top defensive players.
WNBA Best Bet: Plum’s Three-Point Barrage
My mercury vs Sparks best bet: Kelsey Plum Over 3.5 3-Pointers (+140 at
bet365)
In her recent return to Las Vegas, Plum struggled, converting only 1 of 7 attempts from beyond the arc and scoring 17 points against her former aces teammates. while one might attribute this to the emotional weight of the reunion, the more likely explanation is the Aces’ defensive prowess, well-versed in neutralizing their former star player.
Consider that performance an outlier. Although the Aces may no longer be the undisputed dynasty they once were, they remain among the WNBA’s elite teams. Similarly, the minnesota Lynx’s undefeated record speaks to their defensive capabilities.It should come as no surprise that they limited Plum to 5-of-14 shooting from the field and 3-of-9 from three-point range in their earlier contest.
The fact that a 3-of-9 performance from beyond the arc is considered below par highlights how exceptionally well Plum has been playing this season.
plum is shooting 40% from three-point range while averaging 8.6 attempts per game. Discounting the Las Vegas game, those numbers jump to an impressive 43.4% on 8.8 attempts per game.
Did You Know? As of May 2024, the WNBA average for 3-point percentage is around 33-34%, making plum’s 40%+ rate significantly above average.
No other player on the Los Angeles Sparks is attempting more than four three-pointers per game. Only Azura Stevens approaches Plum’s volume, averaging three attempts while also hitting 40% of her shots from deep.
Plum is clearly the Sparks’ primary offensive weapon from long range this season. Leading Los Angeles in assists, points, steals, and three-point percentage underscores her value to the team.
That kind of offensive focus will pay dividends against Phoenix. Without Alyssa Thomas, the Mercury’s defense is significantly weakened, which should create more open looks for Plum, particularly off screens.
Capitalize on Plum early in the season. Oddsmakers will adjust to her performance level sooner rather than later.
Mercury vs Sparks: Same-Game Parlay (SGP)
Plum o3.5 made threes
Sabally o22.5 points
Sparks -5
Without Alyssa Thomas, Phoenix’s performance diminishes on both ends of the court. On May 21,the Mercury were favored by five points as hosts against the Sparks. As then, Phoenix has a 2-2 record against the spread (ATS), while Los Angeles is 1-3 ATS. neither record is compelling enough to warrant significant adjustments to power rankings.
The shift from -5 to +5 reflects the change in home-court advantage and Thomas’s absence. Is Thomas worth five points? given her impact on both offense and defense, quite possibly.
in Friday’s loss to the Lynx, Satou Sabally carried the offensive load for the Mercury, scoring 26 points on 10-of-20 shooting. Only two other Mercury players even attempted 10 shots, with Monique Akoa Makani and Sami whitcomb combining to go 7-of-21.
Phoenix’s offense may currently be overly reliant on sabally.
Mercury vs Sparks: Odds Analysis
Live Odds Update
Opening Odds
- Spread: Phoenix +4.5 | Los Angeles -4.5
- Moneyline: Phoenix +115 | Los Angeles -167
- Over/Under: Over 162 | Under 162
Key Trend To Know
Phoenix has played only one road game this season,losing both outright and against the spread.
How To Watch Mercury vs Sparks
| Location | Crypto.com Arena, Los angeles, CA |
| Date | Sunday, 6-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 PM PST |
| TV | Spectrum SportsNet, Arizona’s Family 3TV, Arizona’s Family Sports |
Injury report
Mercury: Rickea Jackson (Out), Rae Burrell (out), Cameron Brink (Out)
Sparks: Lexi Held (Questionable), Kahleah Copper (Out), natasha Mack (Out), Alyssa Thomas (Out)
Pro tip: Monitor injury reports closely before placing any bets, as player availability can significantly impact game outcomes.
understanding WNBA Betting Strategies
Betting on the WNBA involves analyzing various factors such as team performance, player statistics, injuries, and head-to-head records. Expert WNBA predictions often focus on key players like Kelsey Plum,whose performances can significantly influence game outcomes. Understanding these dynamics can definitely help bettors make informed decisions and improve their chances of success.
Effective betting strategies also include monitoring live odds, understanding trends, and considering same-game parlays to maximize potential returns. Staying informed about team news and player conditions is crucial for making accurate WNBA picks.
Frequently Asked Questions About WNBA Picks
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What factors influence expert WNBA predictions for games like Mercury vs Sparks?
Experts analyze team form, player injuries, head-to-head records, and recent performances to make accurate predictions.
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How crucial is Kelsey Plum to the Los Angeles Sparks’ performance?
Kelsey Plum is a key player, leading the team in points, assists, and three-point percentage, making her indispensable when she is on the court.
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Can injuries significantly alter WNBA betting odds?
Yes,injuries to key players like Alyssa Thomas can significantly shift the odds and impact game outcomes.
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What does “ATS” mean in the context of WNBA betting?
“ATS” stands for “against The Spread,” referring to a bet on whether a team will cover the point spread set by oddsmakers.
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What are some common WNBA betting trends to watch?
Trends such as a team’s performance on the road or against specific opponents can provide valuable insights for bettors.
What are your WNBA best bets for tonight’s game? Share your predictions and thoughts in the comments below!
Disclaimer: This article provides WNBA betting insights for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.
