Breaking: elise Mertens Favored Over tararudee in Australian Open Round of 128
Table of Contents
- 1. Breaking: elise Mertens Favored Over tararudee in Australian Open Round of 128
- 2. Key Match Details
- 3. Predictions and Odds
- 4. Performance Snapshot
- 5. Why This Match Matters
- 6. Evergreen Takeaways for Tennis Fans
- 7. Engagement
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- 9. Player Snapshot
- 10. Head‑to‑Head History
- 11. Tactical Breakdown
- 12. Betting Odds (as of 10:30 GMT, 19 Jan 2026)
- 13. Prediction & Scoreline
- 14. Practical Betting Tips
- 15. Potential Upset triggers
- 16. Frequently Asked Questions
In the Australian Open round of 128, Elise Mertens, the world No. 21, is tipped to advance past Lanlana Tararudee, ranked No.131. Bookmakers set Mertens as a solid favorite wiht a -350 price, while Tararudee sits as the underdog at +260.
The Australian Open tilt on Sunday features a hard-court duel that will be broadcast on ESPN+268, with continued coverage throughout the tournament via streaming and social channels.Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook, with updates captured at 10:36 a.m. ET on the day of the match.
Key Match Details
| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Tournament | Australian Open |
| Round | Round of 128 |
| Date | Sunday, January 18 |
| court surface | Hard |
| TV Channel | ESPN+268 |
| Live Stream | Fubo |
Predictions and Odds
Mertens is favored to win, with a probability implied by the moneyline of about 77.8%. The outright odds are -350 for Mertens and +260 for Tararudee. Looking ahead, Mertens’ chances to win the tournament sit at +1800, while Tararudee trails at +20000.
Performance Snapshot
- Mertens has concentrated success on hard courts,recording a 17-12 win-loss mark on the surface over the past year and securing 73.9% of her service games.
- On return games,Mertens has claimed 36.7% of games in the same period and converted 42.3% of break-point opportunities (105 of 248).
- In her most recent event,the Kinoshita Group Japan Open,Mertens reached the Round of 16 before falling to No. 78 Tereza Valentova, 4-6, 1-6.
- Tararudee has posted a 10-6 record on hard courts across seven tournaments in the last year, with a 69.4% hold rate on her service games but a 41.3% return-game success.
- Tararudee has converted 49.6% of break points on hard courts (69 of 139), ranking 106th in that metric.
- Her recent form includes a semifinal appearance at the AO Asia-Pacific Wildcard Playoff Women Singles 2025, where she fell 7-6, 1-6, 3-6 to En-Shuo Liang.
Why This Match Matters
For fans and bettors, the round presents a test of Tararudee’s ability to convert on hard courts against a top-25 opponent. Mertens’ consistency on serve and her recent form on hard courts provide a plausible path to the win, even as upsets are always possible in Grand Slam first rounds.
Evergreen Takeaways for Tennis Fans
- Hard-court matchups often hinge on first-serve effectiveness and break-point conversion; small margins can swing results in the opening rounds of Majors.
- as the tournament unfolds, watching how players adapt to altitude, ball speed, and stadium atmosphere can offer clues to long-term performance on this surface.
Engagement
Which factor will decide this clash: Mertens’ serving depth or Tararudee’s resilience on return games? Do you expect Tararudee to spring an upset in this hard-court battle?
Share your prediction and tell us how you think the Australian Open will unfold for these two players this season.
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Mertens vs. Tararudee – Australian Open 2026 Round of 128 Preview
Player Snapshot
| Player | Current WTA Rank (Jan 2026) | 2025‑2026 Season Highlights | Recent Grand Slam Form |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elise Mertens (Belgium) | #16 | • Semi‑finalist in Stuttgart (clay) • Quarter‑finalist in Doha (hard) • 3 WTA 500 titles in 2025 |
• 4th‑round finish at 2025 Australian Open (lost to top‑5 opponent) |
| Natsumi Tararudee (Thailand) | #112 | • Winner of $100K bangkok (2025) • Two ITF $80K titles in 2025 • Qualified for WTA 250 events in Tokyo & Auckland |
• First‑round exit at 2025 Australian Open (wild‑card) |
Both players enter the Melbourne swing in good health, with Mertens carrying Grand Slam experience and Tararudee riding a surge of confidence from her recent ITF successes.
Head‑to‑Head History
* No previous meetings on the WTA Tour.
* Statistical comparison (career‑to‑date) underscores Mertens’ advantage in:
- First‑serve % – 66 % vs. 60 %
- Break‑point conversion – 42 % vs. 28 %
- Return games won – 48 % vs.35 %
Tactical Breakdown
Elise Mertens
* Serve & volley – Utilises a high‑kick second serve to push opponents back.
* Baseline consistency – 78 % rally win rate on first‑serve points.
* Defensive depth – Excellent court coverage; frequently forces opponents into errors on long rallies.
Natsumi Tararudee
* Aggressive forehand – Drives 70 + mph inside the baseline, especially effective on open courts.
* Varied spin – Mixes heavy topspin with slice to disrupt rhythm.
* Young stamina – Capable of maintaining high intensity through three‑set matches.
Key matchup points
* Mertens’ superior return game should neutralize Tararudee’s serve.
* Tararudee’s forehand depth could test Mertens on the backhand side, especially on fast Melbourne courts.
* Experience in pressure moments favors Mertens, but Tararudee’s recent “win‑or‑lose” mentality could produce an upset.
Betting Odds (as of 10:30 GMT, 19 Jan 2026)
| Bookmaker | Mertens | Tararudee |
|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.32 | 5.80 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 6.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.28 | 6.40 |
| PointsBet | 1.35 | 5.60 |
All odds reflect Mertens as a clear favorite, with Tararudee positioned as a potential upset candidate at mid‑range returns.
Prediction & Scoreline
Projected result: Elise Mertens defeats Natsumi Tararudee 6‑3, 6‑2.
Rationale: Mertens’ higher ranking, stronger return statistics, and proven Grand Slam resilience outweigh Tararudee’s recent form surge. Expect Mertens to dictate play early, break Tararudee’s serve twice per set, and close the match in two straight sets.
Practical Betting Tips
- Focus on set betting:
* Bet on “Mertens – first set” (odds ~1.18) for a low‑risk win.
- Consider over/under 13.5 games:
* With a projected 12‑game total, the “under” market (≈1.65) offers value.
- Live‑bet possibility:
* If Tararudee wins the first game,live odds often drift to “Mertens – to win in 2 sets” at around 1.30—good for a swift hedge.
Potential Upset triggers
* Early rain delay – could disrupt Mertens’ rhythm and favor the more adaptable Tararudee.
* First‑set tie‑break – If Tararudee pushes a tight first set,momentum may shift dramatically.
* In‑match injury – Mertens’ recent shoulder niggle (reported in Doha) could limit her serve potency.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Has Tararudee ever beaten a top‑20 player?
A: Yes. She recorded a surprise win over world No. 19 at the 2025 Hua Hin Open, showcasing her ability to raise her level against elite opponents.
Q: What surface does Mertens excel on?
A: Mertens’ game translates best to medium‑fast hard courts, making Melbourne a pleasant setting for her aggressive baseline style.
Q: How does the Australian Open draw effect early‑round odds?
A: The draw typically pits higher‑seeded players against qualifiers or lower‑ranked wildcards, resulting in compressed odds (1.20‑1.40) for early matches,as seen in this Mertens‑Tararudee preview.
Quick Reference – Match Essentials
* Date & Time: 20 Jan 2026, 14:00 AEDT
* court: Show Court 2, Melbourne Park
* Broadcast: ESPN Australia, Tennis Channel (US)
* Live Score Tracker: Australian Open official app & ATP/WTA live feeds
