Winter in Quebec is taking its time, leaving residents to trade their shovels for light jackets as the province settles into a notably mild and dry November.
While the calendar suggests the season of heavy snow is imminent, current atmospheric patterns are steering major weather systems away from the St. Lawrence Valley, favoring the southern United States instead.
Meteorologists are observing a period of calm that will dominate at least the next two weeks. According to MétéoMédia, precipitation levels across the province are expected to remain below seasonal norms through the end of November.
A warm air ridge is set to establish itself over the eastern half of the continent early next week, effectively keeping the region’s temperatures elevated and ensuring that any stray precipitation falls as rain rather than snow.
In 2021, the city did not see its first significant accumulation until November 26, and in 2024, the wait stretched until December 2.
While the atmosphere remains quiet for now, the stability may be temporary. Meteorologist Nicolas Lessard explained to MétéoMédia that a historic reversal of the polar vortex in the upper atmosphere is currently complicating long-range forecasts. While the impacts of this event at ground level are uncertain, Lessard said that such atmospheric shifts often precede major weather patterns.
“Il faut toujours environ deux à quatre semaines avant de voir les effets au niveau du sol, mais ce vortex polaire qui s’affaiblit pourrait permettre des descentes plus marquées d’air froid.”
said Lessard. He cautioned that these cold fronts do not necessarily guarantee a snowy outlook for Quebec, as they could just as easily be redirected toward Western Canada, Europe, or Siberia.
In the short term, some residents may still see a fleeting wintry display. Espaces reported that a system passing through the northeastern United States could bring a dusting of snow to parts of southern Quebec between Thursday and Saturday. However, experts remain skeptical about the longevity of any accumulation in the St. Lawrence Valley.
“On ne prévoit pas de contexte très agité pour terminer le mois de novembre. En fait, on considère que les précipitations devraient être sous la normale de saison pour cette période de l’année,” explained Nicolas Lessard, météorologue.
Avec des températures prévues entre 3 et 4 °C jeudi, vendredi et samedi—sous la normale saisonnière d’environ 6 °C—le froid de surface fait que l’adhérence est moins bonne, ce qui incite à installer ses pneus d’hiver.
“Ça pourrait être 1 cm, ça pourrait être à la limite 2 cm. […] La neige va certainement en laisser dans les Adirondacks, dans les montagnes Vertes, probablement même en Estrie. Mais est-ce que dans la vallée du Saint-Laurent, à Montréal, même sur l’île, ça, c’est moins certain.”
said Simon Legault, porte-parole d’Environnement Canada, in an interview with the Agence QMI. He added that the cold surface temperatures reduce road traction, making it the right time to install winter tires, regardless of whether a snowstorm is expected soon.
“Et si [la neige] est là, elle ne va pas durer longtemps. […] Ceux qui ont hâte sont déjà probablement prêts, mais ceux qui ont moins hâte, il faut être conscient que ça va arriver.”
Legault concluded.
As the province experiences this unusually mild stretch, the climate context adds another layer of complexity. With the region currently experiencing a phenomenon labeled as a potentially historic “super El Niño,” historical weather records remain a fragile guide.
