2024-01-08 13:09:55
It’s No. 1 Michigan versus No. 2 Washington for the national title. The powerful, physical Wolverines versus the high-powered Huskies attack? So who’s going to win? Our staff members make their picks.
Nicole Auerbach: I’m sticking with my preseason pick, even though the electrifying Washington offense certainly gives me pause. But the Wolverines will win the way they have all year — by dominating both lines of scrimmage, by taking care of the football and by trusting veterans J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum to step up when the lights are brightest.
Jayna Bardahl: I’m admittedly nervous about the Huskies’ run defense, but I’m trusting their offense will pick up the slack. Michigan hasn’t faced an offense as equipped as Washington’s through the air. As Washington’s offensive line holds up to its Joe Moore Award-winning status, Michael Penix Jr. and company will be too much to keep up with.
Matt Brown: Washington’s offense will test Michigan like no one in the Big Ten could, but I picked Michigan to win the national championship in the preseason and feel I should see it through to the end. The Wolverines are experienced and talented and have the more complete team. They have the secondary to test Washington’s receivers and the patience to play keep-away with a physical running game. I’ll take Michigan to limit possessions and win by a touchdown.
Richard Deitsch: Let me go slightly off the board from my colleagues and give you two predictions: Michigan’s front seven ultimately will be the difference late in what should be a fantastic, high-octane game: 34-27 Wolverines. The second prediction? The title game will draw the best viewership number since 2017 in a massive increase over last year’s Georgia blowout of TCU (17.2 million viewers). Put me down for 26 million viewers.
Terry Dwyer: This Washington team bears more than a passing resemblance to CJ Stroud’s Ohio State teams of 2021 and 2022, and I expect Michigan to replicate its successes in those games by limiting big plays, forcing red zone stops with defensive run dominance in high-leverage situations and controlling the ball with a balanced run/pass attack.
Tyler Holston: Michigan slows the game down with a ground-and-pound approach, which is successful, but Washington will jump out to a 7-plus-point lead and Michigan won’t be able to keep pace. Washington ends with a perfect season, gives the Pac-12 a proper send-off, and Penix makes Heisman voters look silly.
Chris Kamrani: Talk about a clash of styles. Michigan would be happy to be able to hand the ball off to Corum 30 times this game if it meant limiting Washington’s offensive possessions. Ultimately it will come down to how often the vaunted Michigan defensive line can make Penix uncomfortable in the pocket. I always tend to go with the team with the superior QB and offensive line, so I’m picking Washington.
Mitch Light: I’m going with Washington because the Huskies have Penix and the Wolverines do not. He does so many things so well, but maybe the most important is his ability — with the help of his offensive line, of course — to avoid sacks. Michigan sacked Alabama’s Jalen Milroe six times for 49 yards lost in the Rose Bowl. That won’t happen against Washington.
Stewart Mandel: I’m done picking against Penix. He is the Joe Burrow of the 2023 season. Texas was able to pressure QBs all season but couldn’t get to him. Michigan does have an even better pass rush, as it showed against Alabama, but the Huskies have allowed sacks on just 2 percent of their pass attempts. The Wolverines will be able to run the ball, but so did Texas. And I’m not sure McCarthy can keep up if it becomes a shootout.
Austin Meek: Washington allowed more than 6 yards per carry against Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game and Texas in the Sugar Bowl. In Corum’s final game in a Michigan uniform, the Wolverines should feed their star running back and ride the player who carried them to the national championship game. Penix and Washington’s receiving corps will present a huge challenge for a Michigan defense that successfully bottled up Milroe in the Rose Bowl. Penix is the best pure passer Michigan has faced this year by a wide margin, but Michigan’s defense is up for the task.
Grace Raynor: These types of games are all about the best players in college football making their mark and putting the finishing touches on their legacies when the stakes are highest. Penix is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. His wide receivers are elite. The Huskies offense was made for this moment, and something tells me Penix will save his best for last.
Joe Rexrode: Washington’s offense will find Michigan much less yielding and more problematic than Texas was, but I still like Penix and his receivers — who could slide into a game on a Sunday and look every bit the part — to make big plays and score points. I just don’t know how Washington is stopping Michigan. Corum showed in the Rose Bowl that he’s one of the best players in college football, and it says here he runs for more than 150 as Michigan gets its first undisputed national championship since 1948.
Pete Sampson: Being a Midwesterner, I’m a sucker for good line play being the difference, and Michigan has that in excess. But Washington’s pass game with Penix and three top receivers is a cheat code (that’s actually legal) and that will get the Huskies over the top.
Mitch Sherman: I can’t shake the belief the Wolverines got their toughest matchup out of the way in the semifinals. Washington is more potent offensively than Alabama. If Penix gets on a streak like he did in the middle portion of the win against Texas, he and his receivers can’t be stopped. But Michigan will heat up the QB with a pass rush unlike the Huskies have seen. And Washington figures to be limited in the run game without Dillon Johnson at full strength. Corum will provide the difference.
Daniel Shirley: I’m torn. I picked Michigan before the season to win it all, and I feel dirty changing my pick this late in the game. But I find myself drawn to Penix and those dynamic wide receivers like I haven’t been in a long time. It’s physical, powerful Michigan against the dynamic, high-powered Washington attack. And more times than not, I’m going to go with the team with the better quarterback.
Audrey Snyder: We’re going to be in for a good one. Penix will for sure have his moments as the masterful quarterback and one of the best athletes in this sport will do his best to spread the ball around, as always. But, the Michigan defense, particularly the pass rush, is why I’m going with the Wolverines. They’ll be able to pressure Penix and come up with a takeaway or two that proves to be the difference.
Jesse Temple: Washington has had an extraordinary season, and I couldn’t be more impressed with the way the Huskies have handled one-possession games. Their past five wins have come by a touchdown or less. But Michigan will find a way in a close game behind the strength of a defense that leads the FBS in scoring defense and total defense. McCarthy, Corum and crew will do enough offensively to give Michigan its first national championship since 1997.
David Ubben: The Huskies have been more composed in tight games this year and are good enough on the lines to allow their offensive skill position talent to make the difference and pull the upset. Quarterbacks often decide games like these. Alabama didn’t have the difference. Ohio State didn’t have the difference. Washington’s passing game is in another stratosphere compared with those two.
Chris Vannini: This game comes down to Washington’s ability to run the ball well enough to keep the Michigan defense honest. UW doesn’t run the ball much, but it does it fairly well. And while Huskies running back Dillon Johnson is expected to play, he won’t be 100 percent after re-aggravating a foot injury against Texas. My prediction is he’s ineffective as a result, allowing Michigan to play more coverage defense, so Michael Penix Jr. can’t quite make enough plays as he did against Texas, and the Wolverines will win a close one.
Justin Williams: Penix and Washington’s receivers could give the Michigan secondary fits, and in both wins over Oregon, I was impressed by how physical the Huskies played. But the Wolverines are a different breed of brute. Michigan’s defensive line will do enough to disrupt Penix, helping the back end, and the Wolverines’ running game will be able to grind the clock and keep the Huskies’ offense in check.
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(Photos of Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy: Sara Diggins and Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today)
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