Major League Baseball has proposed a radical shift for the amateur draft starting in 2028, requiring players to turn 20 by September of their draft year and be at least two years removed from high school graduation. According to MLB.com, the initiative aims to capitalize on surging college baseball talent development.
Fantasy & Market Impact
The Shifting Paradigm of Amateur Talent Development
Labor talks are intensifying between Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association ahead of the current collective bargaining agreement’s expiration on December 1, 2026. While veteran contracts usually dominate headlines, this structural proposal targets the very foundation of the talent pipeline. Under the league’s initial proposal presented to the MLBPA, high school baseball players could effectively become ineligible for the direct professional draft pathway starting in 2028.
The league points to hard data to justify the overhaul. According to reporting by Mark Feinsand on MLB.com, 75% of all domestic Major League players played college baseball, and 88% of those players were not ranked in high school. Furthermore, the modern collegiate landscape looks unrecognizable compared to a decade ago. Expanded scholarships, name, image, and likeness (NIL) opportunities, revenue sharing, and heavy facility investments have turned universities into high-performance development hubs.
Recent Draft Trends Defy the League’s Narrative
Yet, the league’s stated desire to phase out direct prep paths runs counter to recent draft rooms. In the 2025 MLB Draft, 19 high school players were selected among the 43 first-round picks. Thirty-nine high schoolers heard their names called within the first three rounds alone. That group included the No. 1 overall pick, shortstop Eli Willits of Oklahoma’s Fort Cobb-Braxtion High School, drafted by the Washington Nationals.
| Draft Year / Metric | High School 1st Rounders | Notable High School No. 1 Picks |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Draft | 19 (out of 43 picks) | Eli Willits (Washington Nationals) |
| 2022 Draft | – | Jackson Holliday (Baltimore Orioles) |
| 2017 Draft | – | Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins) |
Willits joined exclusive company as just the third high school player taken with the top overall selection since 2017, following Jackson Holliday in 2022 and Royce Lewis in 2017. Moreover, data shows that 82 college players drafted since 2023 have already reached the major leagues within two years of selection. That fast-track total eclipses the combined number of players who made that jump between 2016 and 2022.
The Junior College Loophole and Front-Office Fallout
If high school players are locked out of the immediate draft pool, the ecosystem will experience a massive trickle-down effect. Prospects uncertain about committing to a traditional four-year NCAA university will likely look toward the junior college ranks. JUCO programs offer a two-year window of eligibility, giving players the developmental freedom to move on to four-year institutions or enter the draft loop sooner.
“In general the impact of the proposal would theoretically have a trickle down effect,” said Josh Houser, baseball manager at Harford Community College in Maryland, highlighting how elite talent will be pushed back into collegiate systems while reshaping roster constructions across all divisions.
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