Monitoring the Increasing Cases of a Subvariant: The Continued Presence of Covid-19 in Several Countries

2023-08-18 22:00:18

Significantly less testing is being carried out than at the peak of the pandemic, but the number of cases is increasing again moderately in some countries.

Image: Uwe Anspach/dpa

The pandemic may be over, but the virus remains: In several countries, the number of cases is increasing at a moderate level. A new subvariant is probably responsible for this, the WHO warns to be vigilant.

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The corona virus seems to be spreading more strongly again in some countries – also in Europe. The subvariant Eris is probably responsible for the increase in the number of cases at a low level. The epidemiological situation is less clear than at the peak of the pandemic due to lower test numbers and less follow-up.

Despite the height of summer, Covid-19 seems to be on the rise again in several countries, including France. The outbreak has been moderate so far, but there is still cause for vigilance. Reports of the epidemic flaring up again are also coming from the USA, Great Britain, India and Japan.

After the SARS-CoV-2 virus faded from the consciousness of most people after more than three years of pandemic and several waves, it has recently made a comeback for some. Some indicators confirm such a development: in the week from July 31 to August 6, the number of emergency admissions in France for suspected Covid-19 increased by 31 percent compared to the previous week, affecting 920 patients, according to data from the Santé Publique France (SPF) emerges.

“Effects that remain moderate,” assessed the public health authority. Finally, the waves in summer or winter 2022 were accompanied by more than 4000 weekly postings.

One day you will be a Subvariant

Although the WHO no longer considers the pandemic a global health emergency since the beginning of May, “the virus continues to circulate in all countries, continues to kill and change,” emphasized WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at a press conference on Wednesday.

The EG.5 variant, dubbed Eris by some scientists, is currently the most followed, as it could be responsible for the increase in numbers. Summer crowds and declining immunity could also play a role, according to some experts.

This subvariant of the omicron family, a member of the XBB lineage, appears to be more transmissible than other circulating variants, probably due to recent genetic mutations. Eris may be able to evade immune defenses better.

«Thick fog» over the epidemiological situation

At this time, “the available evidence does not indicate that EG.5 poses an additional public health risk compared to the other circulating progeny lines of Omicron,” according to the WHO. But “the risk remains that a more dangerous variant will emerge and lead to a sudden increase in cases and deaths,” Tedros reminded.

However, tracking epidemic fluctuations is more complicated than it used to be due to a lack of data since testing numbers, sequencing and tracking tools have all collapsed.

“The fog over the epidemiological situation is very dense worldwide. The health authorities urgently need to set up a reliable Covid-19 health monitoring system again,” says Antoine Flahaut, who is particularly committed to the analysis of wastewater in Europe.

Over time and waves, the impact of Covid-19 on hospital admissions and deaths has greatly diminished thanks to high levels of immunity acquired through vaccination and/or infection. However, it is not zero and the problems with Long Covid are added.

Vaccination remains a crucial tool

According to Antoine Flahault, the question is “whether immunocompromised and elderly people with even minor symptoms are prescribed tests to benefit from early antiviral treatment that is effective in reducing the risk of severe forms”.

Among others, the US pharmaceutical company Pfizer is already working on adapted vaccines. (archive image)

Bild: KEYSTONE/EPA/ROLEX DELA PENA

Vaccination remains crucial and the WHO called on Wednesday to “intensify efforts to increase vaccination coverage”. The vaccines against Covid-19 lose their effectiveness against infections over time, but are still considered to be very protective against severe courses. The pharmaceutical companies Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and Novavax are currently preparing vaccines targeting the XBB line to better respond to the mutations of the virus.

Vaccination campaigns are planned for this autumn in several countries, including France, which will focus on those most at risk and will be coupled with vaccinations against the flu.

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