Should the defense budget be further increased following the war in Ukraine? This is what Prime Minister Alexander de Croo and Chief of Defense Admiral Michel Hofman want. Environmentalists continue to oppose it.
The 2% totem
Yes the tension is rising within the Vivaldi on this subject. At the end of June, the Prime Minister wishes to be able to go to Madrid, during the NATO summit, to announce that Belgium will finally respect the objective set by NATO of spending 2% of GDP on defence. To give you an idea, we are currently at just over 1%, or 4.2 billion euros per year.
The government before the war in Ukraine had already decided to increase it because we were really falling behind our allies. It was a break with the past since since 1989, the defense budget had not stopped falling. With each budget, the army was scoured.
The war in Ukraine boosted this dynamic. The government has promised to increase this budget to 1.5% of GDP, i.e. nearly 6.8 billion euros by 2030. Reaching 2% means adding nearly 2.5 billion euros to reach nearly 9 billion euros. To put it simply, it’s almost doubling the defense budget in the long term.
Jean Marc Nollet, Mr “no”
Environmentalists oppose it. Jean Marc Nollet affirmed it loud and clear in an interview. He explains that he has other priorities, for purchasing power, for the energy transition. Indeed, this increase in credit reduces the resources that can be mobilized for climate policies. But above all, it goes against part of the historical electorate of the Greens from the pacifist movements of the 1980s (at the time of the euromissile crisis, these nuclear missiles that NATO installed in Europe to counter the Soviet Union).
Participating in the remilitarization of the country would be a new break for the Greens with their roots. If you consider that Ecolo has already had to go against the grain of the historical electorate constituted by the opponents of civil nuclear power in the file of the extension of nuclear reactors, that is a lot.
The “realism” of the German Greens
However, massive rearmament is what the Greens in Germany have decided. The word historical is not at all overused. After weeks of talks, the ruling coalition in Berlin (Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals) has teamed up with the opposition, former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Conservatives to boost the military budget 100 billion euros to arrive at this famous 2% of GDP.
To achieve this, Germany had to change its constitution where its famous budgetary golden rule is inscribed, which limits indebtedness. Neither the threat of seeing the Eurozone break up, nor the climate emergency, nor the Covid had managed to deviate Germany from this golden rule. The war has arrived there: Germany circumvents its dogma of limitation of indebtedness. German environmentalists with Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock are part of this decision.
The “naivety” of the Belgian greens
The position of Belgian environmentalists was quickly considered naive by some. But this reproach cannot be made only to the greens. From a certain point of view is this credit increase to 2% also naive. If we observe in absolute value the Europeans in 2020 spent 232 billion dollars on their defense in 2020.
Russia spent $66 billion. It is 4 times less. It is clear that the question of expenditure cannot be reduced to an opposition between “naïve” versus “realistic”. Because the “realistic” posture includes an element of naivety.
How can a “realist” explain that the essential issue is to spend more when Europe spends 4 times more than Russia but considers its defense ineffective? How can a “realist” see fit to spend more when our defense industry is weak and largely dependent on the Americans? Spending more and not confronting these questions is a naïveté as confusing as that which led to the disinvestment of the armed forces of the country.