2023-06-16 22:42:00
The latest report presented by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), “OECD Economic Outlook”, published in June, indicates that the Moroccan economy is expected to grow during 2023 and 2024 by more than 3%. .
In this spirit, the OECD agrees with the report of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) where it forecasts a growth rate for the Moroccan economy of 3.1% this year, higher than that of neighboring countries such as Algeria, or Tunisia which have a respective growth forecast of 2.1% and 2%.
This good economic disposition the Kingdom owes mainly to the stabilization of the world economy and an increased demand for foreign goods and services. It is an open secret, Morocco is highly dependent on imports of energy and food products, cereals in particular.
Also and because of the rise in world prices due to the international situation such as the conflict in Ukraine, the Moroccan economy is affected like many others in the world. But it was able to thwart this slowdown thanks to an increase in its agricultural exports to its European trading partners despite a drought which is hampering the rate of production, as well as the impetus of the automotive sector, which remains l one of the stable domains.
The Moroccan economy haloed by this, however, faces challenges such as inflation, energy and food dependence. The OECD therefore strongly advises maintaining and improving growth potential, and implementing reforms in education, the labor market, the digital economy and social security.
The OECD report states that ” Ongoing services-related inflationary pressures and upward cost pressures from tight labor markets will require many central banks to maintain high policy rates in 2023 and well into 2024.”.
Also the document which praises the anticipation of Bank Al Maghrib concerning budgetary and monetary policies indicates that “the Central Bank raised its key rate several times, from 1.5% in September 2022 to 3% in March 2023, and a further increase is expected” of 50 basis points during this year in order to mitigate the possible rise in inflation. This has helped stabilize the Moroccan dirham, which had depreciated against the euro in 2022. Since January, it has continued to recover steadily.
To this end, the OECD recommends a balanced combination of policies, consolidating progressive fiscal measures to support the economy, and also vulnerable households likely to be affected by scourges such as droughts. The implementation of a structural reform whose priority is to stimulate private investment, to support the employment of women and to increase the preparation for the risks linked to the bad weather to come are some of the recommendations of the Institution. .
Furthermore, the OECD report indicates that the unemployment rate fell by 11.8%. Like the dirham, the services sector should also recover with the return to normal of tourist activities. Indeed, the passage of Lady Covid has hurt this sector which is gradually taking its head out of the water. On the other hand, private consumption has increased by 1% since 2022 and is also expected to stabilize by 2024.
Economically, the Kingdom presents a good diagnosis according to the OECD. The national GDP has tripled in less than 20 years, while the inflation rate remains stable. On the other hand, it presents a “low security risk”, similar to that of Spain or France. This optimal economic climate therefore facilitates a business-friendly environment. Morocco is the most competitive country in North Africa and the continent’s most attractive investment destination.
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