Don’t worry about changing YEN! ? Under the divergence of monetary policy between the United States and Japan, the interest rate spread continued to widen, and the yen against the dollar approached a 32-year low of 152 last week, prompting the Japanese government to enter the market again to defend the exchange rate. After entering the market, the yen has not changed its trend, and it may further find its bottom. Eisuke Sakakibara, a former Japanese financial officer known as “Mr. Yen”, even predicted that the yen will depreciate to 170 against the US dollar next year, or 15% lower than the current level, or HK$4.6 per 100 yen.
In an interview with CNBC, Sakakihara Eiji (circle chart) pointed out that even if the government continues to intervene in the foreign exchange market, it will not be very effective. I believe that officials also know that the intervention is useless. “Most business people currently expect the yen to further depreciate to about 170 levels.” He also expected that when BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s term expires in April next year, the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates later next year amid inflationary pressures.
Interventions are ineffective, vulnerable and difficult to change
OCBC Wing Hang Bank reported that Japan’s foreign exchange interventions, coupled with the dollar and US Treasury yields, supported the yen, temporarily fluctuating around 147.5 to 149.5. The market expects that the Bank of Japan will hold interest rate meeting tomorrow to maintain the monetary easing policy, and the pattern of weaker yen is expected to remain unchanged. It is expected that the support level against the US dollar in the next two weeks will be 148 and the resistance level will be 149; the support level against the Hong Kong dollar will be 5.27 and the resistance level will be 5.3. In addition, Mohammed Apabhai, head of Asia-Pacific trading strategy at Citigroup, expected the yen to reach 160 or even 185 against the dollar, as the United States continued to raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy. After the yen fell below the 145 level against the dollar in September, the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan finally intervened in the foreign exchange market for the first time since June 1998. The Japanese Ministry of Finance disclosed last month that the capital involved was about 20 billion US dollars. Last Friday, the Yuan exchange fell below the 151 level and reached a low of 151.94. A few days ago, it was rumored that the authorities had denounced 30 billion US dollars to support the exchange. The yen against the US dollar was quoted at 147.91 at 9 o’clock last night, up 0.4%, and this month has temporarily fallen by 2.2%; this year, it has temporarily fallen by about 28.5%.
Originally published on AM730 https://www.am730.com.hk/local/yen Mr. Yen is weak – against HKD may see 4.6/344919?utm_source=yahoorss&utm_medium=referral