2023-06-07 10:45:31
The economic situation is still just as delicate, with galloping inflation in particular, substantially reducing the purchasing power of citizens. But through this ambient economic gloom, a slight scent of optimism is spreading, born of a main element: the arrival of the rain, which delights the farmers and allows at least to hope for an average agricultural campaign.
We believe that whatever the situation, whatever the ramparts in front of us, whatever the difficulties, we would henceforth be able, by dint of determination and willpower, to overcome them.
Tunisia certainly has a real but constrained development potential. Its economic growth is today surrounded by several uncertainties. Several analysts and economists are of the opinion that the growth rate of the Tunisian economy for the year 2023 is still lower than that of previous years.
Following a pandemic (2020-2021) which tested our adaptability and forced us to redefine our priorities in terms of health and social protection, 2022 saw the arrival of a new crisis with the start of the war in Ukraine.
Combined with the drought that occurred during the 2021-2022 agricultural campaign, the rise in the prices of raw materials and that of food products caused a series of budget cuts, loss of value for companies and sacrifices for citizens. The Ukrainian crisis and its global impact on energy and agrifood have caused far too high bills that have directly or indirectly impacted almost all economic sectors. Import levels are much higher than export levels, and the trade deficit is only growing.
Unexciting indicators
In this context, the national program major structural reforms (2023-2025), which concerns many vital sectors, was designed to achieve the promised economic recovery.
As several studies and reports show, all the indicators are still red. Indeed, difficulties in mobilizing external financing resources still persist. Thus, 14,859 MD of external credits are provided for in the 2023 finance law (against 12,652 MD in that of 2022), an amount difficult to obtain without the finalization of the extended facility agreement with the IMF, and this, Moody’s downgraded Tunisia’s sovereign rating from B3 to Caa1, with a negative outlook, reflecting a weakening of governance. External debt service increased, estimated at 8,949 MD for 2023, against 6,048 MD in 2022.
For investment, the rate would be around 16.5% in 2023, associated with a modest savings rate of 10.8% and weak growth. This is due to an unfavorable environment resulting in the closure, since 2019, of 433 industrial companies, including 212 totally exporting, causing 6,000 job losses. The increase in the interest rate by the BCT and the State’s massive recourse to domestic credits are not likely to favor the expected recovery of investment.
Growth: risks of stagnation
The growth rate forecast for 2023, in the economic budget and the state budget, is only 1.8%, announcing risks of stagnation. Specific measures, in each sector, are necessary to relaunch growth.
Similarly, the inflation rate exceeded 10% and is likely to increase further. This surge is related to adjustments in the prices of compensated products and shortages of basic products.
In order to meet the challenges of the main issues, in terms of inflation, market supply and external financing, Tunisia would benefit from finalizing the extended facility agreement with the IMF, by implementing the essential measures as soon as possible. possible terms, integrate, with the necessary flexibility, the informal sector into the development system.
It is also a question of stimulating national savings, in the service of private investment and growth, improving the general investment climate, in the service of small and medium-sized enterprises, and that of the productivity of the economy. allowing the necessary wage adjustments to preserve social peace.
rescue program
And it is from an exhaustive diagnosis of the economic situation in Tunisia, during the meeting of President Kaïs Saïd with of academics and scholars, held recently, that the need to adopt a financial rescue program as soon as possible, given that the crisis is financial par excellence and that we should not wait for the end of the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to act.
In addition, urgent measures must be taken, especially since the reforms included in the reform file with the IMF concern the medium and long term. According to expert Ridha Chkandali, “the solution is to seek sources of foreign exchange income, whether through loans or a clear bailout package.”
And to add that “the economic situation is characterized by a very high financial inflation estimated at 10.3%, and an inflation rate at the level of foodstuffs within the limit of 25%.
The lifting of subsidies is currently not possible at the level of the accounting approach, noting that the agreement with the IMF provided for the lifting of subsidies this year, and this was also included in the 2023 budget law by removing subsidies on fuel at 2,100 billion and basic materials for a value of 1,000 billion”.
He went on to explain that “the average world price of oil is within the limits of $74, and under the assumptions of the state budget, it is within the limits of $89, which means that every dollar that decreases according to the assumptions of the State is equivalent to a profit of 141 billion dollars”, considering that the request to postpone the lifting of subsidies for an additional year has justifications and will not harm the technical agreement with the IMF “.
The risk to avoid, in the years to come, is to continue on the only path, that of the economic situation, without worrying about a more structural approach taking into account the highly difficult global context and the new existing data at the same time. than the strategic axes retained by the new development model.
This means that the necessary shift from the cyclical to the structural requires a consistent understanding of the measures and reforms to be decided upon and undertaken.
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