2023-07-28 22:02:00
The presidential formula Union for the Homeland (UxP) by Sergio Massa and Agustin Rossi would be the most voted according to a national survey released in the last hours if the presidential elections were “tomorrow”. The study is from the consultancy New Communicationwho asked in various provinces who would vote if the presidential elections were held tomorrow: Massa-Rossi they finished with 24%. LHoracio Rodríguez Larreta’s formula y Gerardo Morales It obtained a 16% intention, three points more than that made up of Bullrich and Luis Petri, with 13%. When making the sum of votes by space, Unión por la Patria is positioned with 28% (there are 4 points corresponding to the formula of Juan Grabois) while Together for Change surpasses them with 29%.
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In this “thirds” scenario, the left-wing formulas were also measured: Myriam Bregman and Nicolás del Caño, from the Left Unity Front, have 3% while that of Gabriel Solano and Vilma Ripoll obtained 1%.
The list is completed with the list of We do for our country whose formula includes Juan Schiaretti from Cordoba and former Kirchner minister Florencio Randazzo, who obtained 3%.
The undecided vote reaches 10% while 6% expressed that they will vote blank or not go to vote, according to the survey of New Communication.
Survey: in the province of Buenos Aires Horacio Rodríguez Larreta beats Patricia Bullrich
Larreta, the leader with the best image
The Nueva Imagen survey also selected the four main leaders of the presidential formulas. Rodríguez Larreta resulted in the best positive image among Massa, Bullrich and Milei: obtained a 38% positive assessment and 46% negative.
The Minister of Economy and candidate for president of UxP appears even with Bullrich. He obtained a 35% positive image and a 57% negative one. The former Minister of Security, meanwhile, achieved 35% positive assessment and 56% negative.
In the case of Javier Milei, from La Libertad Avanza, appears with the worst performance in the selection made by the study. It has a 33% positive image but is counteracted with 58% negative. In all cases the differential is negative.
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Four ballotage scenarios
There are two weeks left for the PASO of August 13, but despite this, the study anticipated an eventual ballot, regardless of the volatility that the political scene in Argentina presents.
For this reason, Nueva Comunicación developed four scenarios Massa and Rodríguez Larreta appear as possible winners, to the detriment of the tougher proposals represented by Bullrich and Milei. In this case, the measurements have a certain degree of uncertainty due to the high degree of blank and undecided votes, but they allow us to infer possible trends.
Second round scenario 1: Larreta against Massa
In this ballot, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta appears as the winner, with 41 points. Four points below, with 37%, Sergio Massa’s formula is second. The blank vote or those who would not vote in this case would rise to 14% and the ‘don’t know’ 8%, according to the survey.
Second round scenario 2: Massa against Bullrich
In this case, the Unión por la Patria formula headed by Massa appears to be the winner, compared to that of Together for Change with Patricia Bullrich. The win would be 40% to 36%. Blank vote would reach 16% and 8% ‘don’t know’ or are undecided.
Second round scenario 3: Larreta against Milei
Rodríguez Larreta would win an eventual ballot if he competed against the formula of Javier Milei and Victoria Villaruel. This triumph is more marked, with 42% over 31% of the libertarian formula. 13% would not go to vote and 14% appear undecided.
Second Round Scenario 4: Massa vs. Milei
In the last possibility Massa also appears with a victory against Milei. He would win the second round, although with less comfortable points than in the previous case. According to Nueva Comunicación the results would be 40% to 35%. This with 10% blank vote and 15% undecided or would not vote.
It is, by all accounts, a probable scenario, but still very distant, taking into account that a trend marked by the PASOwhich will only take place on August 13 when the votes are counted.
Political dynamism could even lead to maintaining the percentage tradition that ends in balloting or Let there be a surprise and everything ends in the first round.
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