Luka Dončić and De’Aaron Fox are outperforming their preseason average draft position this season as tracking data reveals major shifts in NBA shot selection that are fundamentally reshaping fantasy basketball values.
- Volume over Percentage: Dončić is launching 13.4 3-pointers per game, pushing his 3-point share to .549 and outperforming his ADP of 3 to rank 2nd overall in 9-cat leagues.
- The Floater Premium: Fox has shifted his offensive diet toward the 3-to-10-foot range, boosting his free-throw rate to .477 with an ADP of 78 and a current rank of 57.
- Efficiency Drag: Desmond Bane and Lauri Markkanen have seen their 3-point shares surge above 64%, while shooting around 39% from the field.
Scoring averages and shooting percentages can swing wildly over the opening weeks of an NBA campaign. Where a player actually takes his shots settles much faster, providing a far more reliable baseline for fantasy managers.
Testing conducted by Tall Order Digital for the 2025-26 season found that among 156 qualifying players, shot-zone shares over the first four games correlated with the rest of the season at 0.72 to 0.86. Field-goal percentage correlated at a meager 0.46.
That volatility dictates why players altering their shot profiles experience immediate turbulence in box scores. Dončić has significantly upped his perimeter attempts with the Los Angeles Lakers, lifting his 3-point share to .549 from .476 last season.
Meanwhile, his rim frequency dropped from .076 to .060 across 11 games through Nov. 11. Despite the perimeter-heavy diet, he is converting 40.8% of those triples to average 38.6 points.
De’Aaron Fox is finding a different kind of efficiency with the San Antonio Spurs. Fox has attempted 53 free throws on 111 field-goal attempts, yielding a free-throw rate of .477 compared to .235 last season.
That spike does not stem from drives to the rim, which remain flat at .207. Instead, shots from 3 to 10 feet jumped from .204 to .315 of his attempts while long twos nearly vanished.
Michael Porter Jr. has similarly navigated a revised role with the Brooklyn Nets. Porter is taking 3s on .615 of his attempts, up from .506 last season, while his 10-to-16-foot share collapsed to .018.
| Player | Team | Preseason ADP | Current 9-Cat Rank | 3-Point Share | Free-Throw Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Dončić | LAL | 3 | 2 | .549 | .444 |
| De’Aaron Fox | SAS | 78 | 57 | .333 | .477 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | BRK | 62.6 | 49 | .615 | .349 |
| Kevin Durant | HOU | 16 | 34 | N/A | .582 |
| Desmond Bane | ORL | 53 | 117 | .676 | .209 |
| Lauri Markkanen | UTA | 36 | 63 | .646 | .283 |
Not every shot profile shift translates to immediate fantasy success. Desmond Bane has seen 100 of his 148 attempts with the Orlando Magic come from beyond the arc, representing a heavy 67.6% 3-point share.
That narrow offensive diet has resulted in a 39.2% mark from the field and 18.0 points per game. Lauri Markkanen has experienced a similar trajectory with the Utah Jazz, where 3s make up .646 of his attempts.
Markkanen is scoring 18.0 points a game on 39% shooting, down from 26.7 last year, and faces an extended absence after suffering two non-displaced fractures in his shooting hand. Matas Buzelis rounds out the cautionary tier in Chicago, where declining overall shot volume has nullified the benefit of a rising free-throw rate.
Disclaimer: The fantasy and market insights provided are for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice.
