March Madness is nearly upon us, and with the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament rapidly approaching, fans are already looking beyond bracket predictions and considering the unpredictable moments that define the event. Among those, the buzzer-beater – a shot made as time expires to win a game – holds a special place in tournament lore. But will we see one this year? As Selection Sunday approaches on March 15, 2026, sportsbooks are offering odds on the possibility, providing a glimpse into the likelihood of a last-second thrill.
The excitement surrounding March Madness extends beyond simply picking winners; it’s about anticipating the dramatic finishes that often unfold. DraftKings Sportsbook currently lists the odds of a buzzer-beater occurring in the 2026 NCAA Tournament at +110, meaning a $10 bet would yield a $21 total payout if a game is won on a shot made at the buzzer. This suggests a fairly reasonable chance of witnessing such a moment, given the high-stakes nature and often close contests of the tournament.
Defining a buzzer-beater as a basket made as time expires, resulting in an immediate win for the scoring team – where the buzzer sounds as the ball is in the air or going through the hoop, and the opposing team doesn’t have another possession – the history of the tournament reveals 47 such instances dating back to 1944. The frequency of these moments isn’t consistent, but they consistently add to the tournament’s appeal.
Last year, in 2025, Maryland secured a narrow 1-point victory over Colorado State in the Round of 32 thanks to a game-winning, 2-point basket by Derik Queen at the buzzer. Prior to that, the years 2023, 2021, 2018, and 2017 each saw four buzzer-beaters, even as 2016 witnessed a tournament-high of four, tying the record set in 1990.
Historical Trends in March Madness Buzzer-Beaters
Analyzing the historical data reveals patterns in how these dramatic finishes unfold. Of the 47 recorded buzzer-beaters, the game was tied in 28 instances. The winning team trailed by only one point in 14 cases and by two points in five. This highlights the often-desperate circumstances that lead to these moments, with many occurring in closely contested games.
The type of shot also varies. Historically, 31 buzzer-beaters have been 2-point field goals, while 13 have been 3-pointers. Less common are buzzer-beaters from free throws (two instances) and “and-one” plays (one instance). The stage of the tournament also influences the likelihood of a buzzer-beater, with the first and second rounds accounting for the majority of these plays.
Specifically, 19 buzzer-beaters have occurred in the first round, 14 in the second round, five in the Elite Eight, three in the Final Four, two in the Sweet Sixteen, and two in the national championship game. Interestingly, there has even been one buzzer-beater each in the national third-place game and regional third-place game, though those contests are no longer held.
Georgetown’s Buzzer-Beater Legacy
Looking at team performance, Georgetown University stands out with the most buzzer-beaters in NCAA Tournament history, boasting three. This statistic underscores the program’s history of close games and clutch performances on the biggest stage.
As the 2026 tournament approaches, the odds suggest a good chance of adding to the legacy of March Madness buzzer-beaters. The inherent unpredictability of the tournament, combined with the high stakes and intense competition, creates the perfect environment for these unforgettable moments to occur. Fans can anticipate a thrilling tournament filled with potential game-winners as teams battle for college basketball supremacy.
The upcoming weeks promise a captivating tournament. As teams prepare and brackets are finalized, the possibility of a buzzer-beater adds another layer of excitement for fans. Maintain an eye on the close contests and the final seconds of each game – you never know when a moment of March Madness magic will unfold.
What are your predictions for the 2026 tournament? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
