Netanyahu’s Reluctance to Defy Trump: The Power Dynamics at Play

INTERVIEW – Donald Trump presented to Israel a peace plan for Gaza. Torn between international pressure and his government, the Hebrew Prime Minister could accept this plan with enigmatic contours, without committing to implement it, according to specialist Guillaume Lagane.

Guillaume Lagane is associated with history, specialist in defense and international relations issues, and lecturer at Sciences Po. He has just published Geopolitics of Europe, At PUF editions.

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Le Figaro. – Donald Trump has developed a Peace plan for Gaza which revolves in 21 measures. Immediate cessation of all military activities, exchange of Palestinian prisoners for hostage release, measures for Hamas leaders … What points could arouse the opposition of Benyamin Netanyahu?

Guillaume Lagane. , Without making it the complete list, this American plan constitutes a compromise of the requirements of the different parties: on the Israeli side, it notably involves the return of all hostages, the demilitarization of Hamas and its departure from the Gaza Strip, the reconstruction of the band under an international direction … The document also includes requirements made by the Arab countries: is thus cited …

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How did the Trump administrationS policies specifically alter the traditional dynamics of US-Israel relations?

Netanyahu’s Reluctance too Defy Trump: The Power dynamics at Play

The Ancient Context of US-Israel Relations

For decades, the United States and Israel have maintained a close, albeit complex, strategic alliance. This relationship, often described as unbreakable, has been built on shared security interests, economic cooperation, and a strong lobbying presence in Washington D.C. Though, the dynamic shifted noticeably during the Trump administration. Donald Trump’s presidency saw a notable departure from traditional US foreign policy, notably regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Key actions included:

* Moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem: A symbolic move that disregarded long-standing international consensus.

* Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA): A decision welcomed by Netanyahu,who consistently opposed the agreement.

* Brokering the Abraham accords: While lauded as a diplomatic achievement, critics argue it sidelined the palestinian issue.

These policies, largely perceived as favorable to Israel under Netanyahu’s leadership, created a situation where defying Trump carried substantial political risk.

Netanyahu’s Legal Battles and Trump’s Influence

Recent developments,as reported by the Times of israel (https://www.timesofisrael.com/secret-deal-to-end-netanyahu-trial-fell-apart-over-pms-refusal-to-step-down-source/), reveal a failed attempt to negotiate a plea deal in Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial. The reported sticking point was Netanyahu’s refusal to step down from office as part of the agreement. This reluctance is inextricably linked to the perceived protection afforded by maintaining his position, and by extension, his relationship with influential figures like Donald Trump.

The potential for Trump’s intervention, or at least tacit support, likely factored into Netanyahu’s calculations. A weakened Netanyahu, facing criminal charges, is a less valuable ally to the US, particularly for those seeking to continue the policies of the Trump era.

The Role of Political survival and Coalition Dynamics

Netanyahu’s long tenure as Prime Minister has been marked by a relentless focus on political survival. His governing coalitions have often been fragile, relying on the support of right-wing and religious parties. Defying Trump, even on matters of principle, could alienate key coalition partners who benefited from the previous administration’s policies.

* Right-Wing Support: Parties aligned with the settlement movement heavily benefited from the Trump administration’s relaxed stance on Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

* Religious Parties: These parties often share ideological affinities with the conservative base that supported Trump.

Any move perceived as distancing from Trump risks fracturing the coalition and perhaps triggering new elections – a scenario Netanyahu has consistently sought to avoid.

Examining the Power Imbalance: US Leverage and Israeli dependence

The US-Israel relationship isn’t one of equals. The US provides Israel with significant military aid (currently $3.8 billion annually) and diplomatic cover on the international stage.This creates a power imbalance where Israel is heavily reliant on US support. While Israel possesses a strong military and intelligence apparatus, its strategic vulnerability necessitates maintaining a strong alliance with the US.

This dependence is amplified when considering:

1. US Veto Power at the UN: The US frequently uses its veto power in the UN Security Council to shield Israel from resolutions it opposes.
2. Military Aid and Technology Transfer: US military aid is crucial for maintaining Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region.
3. Intelligence Sharing: Close intelligence cooperation between the two countries is vital for addressing shared security threats.

The Impact of a Potential Biden Administration Shift

The election of Joe Biden signaled a potential shift in US policy towards Israel. While the Biden administration has reaffirmed its commitment to Israel’s security, it has also expressed a desire to restore US engagement with the Palestinians and revive the two-state solution.

This shift presents a challenge for Netanyahu. A more assertive US administration, willing to challenge Israeli policies, could increase the pressure on Netanyahu to make concessions and potentially jeopardize his political future. The fear of such pressure likely contributes to his reluctance to deviate from the Trump-era alignment.

The Influence of Lobbying Groups and Pro-Israel Advocacy

Powerful pro-Israel lobbying groups, such as AIPAC (american Israel Public Affairs Committee), play a significant role in shaping US policy towards Israel. These groups often cultivate close relationships with members of Congress and advocate for policies that align with Israeli interests.

During the Trump administration, these groups were largely supportive of the administration’s policies, further reinforcing the perception that aligning with Trump was politically advantageous for Netanyahu. The continued influence of these groups will undoubtedly shape the future trajectory of US-Israel relations.

Case Study: The Iran Nuclear deal

The Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) provides a clear example of the power dynamics at play. Netanyahu vehemently opposed the deal, viewing it as an existential threat to israel. He actively lobbied against it in the US, culminating in Trump’s decision to withdraw in 2018.

This demonstrated Netanyahu’s ability to influence US policy, but also highlighted his dependence on a US president sympathetic to his views. The current efforts to revive the JCPOA under the Biden administration represent a direct challenge to netanyahu’s long-held position and further illustrate his reluctance to defy a US