European researchers have developed a personalized metabolic indicator that predicts longevity and the risk of chronic diseases by analyzing chemical substances produced by the human body.
The development addresses a critical public health challenge: approximately 60% of people over the age of 65 currently live with two or more simultaneous chronic conditions. Presented by Joris Deelen of the Leiden University Medical Center (LUMC) during FAPESP Week Netherlands, the indicator serves as a detailed metabolic portrait to promote healthier aging processes.
The marker acts as a general health indicator during middle age, allowing for the early identification of individuals on a healthy aging trajectory versus those at higher risk of functional decline.
Metabolic Scores Predict Long-Term Health
Because biological aging cannot be measured directly, the research team—which included scientists from the Max Planck Institute for Biology of Ageing in Cologne, Germany—analyzed the blood of 44,000 volunteers. These participants were tracked across 12 European studies over several years, during which researchers measured more than 200 substances, including lipids, sugars, and inflammatory markers.
The study, which recorded 5,500 deaths among the cohort, allowed scientists to map specific substances that act as biological red flags for mortality. Gabriela Natalle Lopes, a medical student from the Albert Einstein Israelite Faculty, worked in Leiden to update the scoring system, making it more personalized and suitable for clinical interventions.
The refinement process involved three distinct stages. First, mathematical calculations were adjusted using Dutch population data to ensure unique results for each patient. Second, the test was simplified from hundreds of items to just ten substances commonly evaluated in standard clinical practice.
Finally, the scoring logic was inverted so that a higher score indicates better health, rather than a higher risk, to improve patient comprehension, Deelen explained. In the original scoring, a high number was bad; we decided to change it so that a higher score indicates better health,
Deelen said.
Clinical Impact of Metabolic Shifts
The metabolic indicator correlates with several key markers of healthy aging, including cognitive function, lung capacity, and handgrip strength, which serves as a proxy for general muscular function. The tool predicts cardiometabolic conditions—such as diabetes, myocardial infarction (heart attack), and stroke—with high accuracy. According to researchers, a one-point increase on this new scale corresponds to delaying the onset of the first cardiometabolic disease by an average of 14 years.
Researchers tested the indicator’s sensitivity by subjecting volunteers to lifestyle changes and strength training programs.
| Metric or Factor | Impact on Metabolic Score / Health |
|---|---|
| Heredity (Genetics) | Determines 40% of the metabolic score |
| Lifestyle & Environment | Determines 60% of the metabolic score |
| Smoking | Identified as the most significant negative factor |
| Physical Activity | Correlates with improved scores and reduced risk |
Biological Links Between Muscle and Brain
Alexandre has investigated the communication between tissues, including muscle and the brain. The literature shows that these tissues exchange substances between them, but the accumulation of fat in the muscle alters the metabolism of lipids and carbohydrates, besides being associated with a higher risk of metabolic syndrome, loss of mobility, and dementia.
This biological explanation for how physical activity and metabolic health determine longevity and protection against functional decline is supported by research conducted at the Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar).
Another factor identified in the research involves the interaction between abdominal fat, vitamin D deficiency, and memory loss.
Artificial Intelligence in Public Health
With artificial intelligence, there is a goal to create predictive models capable of indicating the probability of dementia during the first consultations and defining which multidisciplinary intervention is most appropriate for each stage of the disease.
To transition these scientific findings into practical use within the public health network, the Center for Science for the Development of Intelligent Methods in the SUS for the Treatment of People with Dementia (CCD-MIDEM) was recently established at UFSCar, with support from Fapesp.
Blood Tests Measure Metabolic Health and Aging Trajectory
- A New Health Snapshot: A simple blood test focusing on ten key substances can now provide a personalized score of your metabolic health and aging trajectory.
- Lifestyle Matters Most: While genetics account for 40% of your metabolic score, 60% is determined by environmental factors and lifestyle choices.
Regional Differences in Healthy Years Lived After Age 65
As Joris Deelen noted, the years lived in good health after age 65 vary drastically by region, such as four years in Romania compared to ten years in the Netherlands, driven by socioeconomic status, education, and lifestyle.
References
- Agência FAPESP
- Em.com.br (Bem Viver)
- Batatais 24h
