what to know
- You’ve probably heard of the XBB.1.5 variant; it is the latest “most transmissible COVID variant so far” and appears to be better at binding to human cells, potentially making it more adept at infecting.
- At this time, there is no evidence that the strain, a combination of two earlier omicron subvariants, is more lethal or more likely to cause COVID complications, but as a senior White House official said last week, if you haven’t recently been vaccinated or infected, your protection probably isn’t that good.
- Nowhere is XBB.1.5 more prevalent than in the northeastern United States, according to the CDC, and hospitalization and death rates, along with cases, are rising accordingly.
NEW YORK — COVID-19 hospitalizations in New York and New Jersey have soared to 11-month highs as the most communicable variant yet, a combination of two earlier omicron strains, fuels another wave of infections nearly three years after the pandemic, the most recent federal health data show.
Deaths are also rising, with weekly death reports for both states currently at their highest levels since early last year, according to the CDC. In New York City, the moving average of COVID deaths is the highest since February 2022, while mobile hospitalizations are at a level not seen since the fall of the initial wave of omicron.
The CDC’s COVID guidelines say face masks should be worn in all settings in New York City, Long Island and much of the Hudson Valley, given the high rate of spread. And the entire state of New Jersey is at the agency’s highest risk level, its most recent data shows. While elected officials and their health departments have advised people to follow those guidelines, especially if they are more vulnerable in terms of age or underlying conditions, no new mandates have been issued.
And neither are new mandates expected, at this point in the pandemic.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, both Democrats, are set to deliver their State of the State addresses on Tuesday. Whether the ongoing COVID response will once again play a prominent role in those discourses remains to be seen. Given these graphs, the odds are quite likely.
Last week, the New York State Department of Health announced that the XBB.1.5 variant is by far the most locally dominant strain, accounting for more than 50% of infections statewide. That proportion is likely to be considerably higher, given the relatively low proportion of positive tests that undergo the extensive process of genetic sequencing to isolate variants.
The same is true for New Jersey, where 38.4% of XBB.1.5-linked sequence cases reflect out-of-date data since mid-December. In New York City, where data is also lagging, the prevalence of XBB.1.5 is likely well above the 68% last updated by the health department on Christmas Eve.
The most recent data from the CDC suggests that XBB.1.5 is spreading in the northeastern United States at a much higher rate than in the rest of the country, accounting for up to 81% of cases in the region that includes New York and New Jersey compared to the 43% high estimate for the nation.
While there is “no clear evidence yet,” according to New York State, that XBB.1.5 significantly affects the virulence or disease severity of COVID, early data indicates that it is more infectious than other circulating variants. The fact that it came at a time when both COVID and flu cases remain high is additional reason for increased caution, he says.
New York City’s positivity rates are confirming transmissibility concerns, with more than a third of neighborhoods in the five boroughs seeing those numbers above 20%, with some places exceeding 30% positivity.
Omicron is still classified as a variant of concern according to the CDC and the World Health Organization. That strain, which first emerged in South Africa in November 2021, though it was likely there before, is the only worrisome variant currently in circulation, according to the WHO.
To be a variant of concern, the WHO says that a strain must be associated with one or more of the following changes to a degree of global importance:
- Increased transmissibility or detrimental change in the epidemiology of COVID-19; EITHER
- Increased virulence or change in the clinical presentation of the disease; EITHER
- Decreased effectiveness of public health and social measures or of available diagnostics, vaccines, and treatments
Given its level of infectivity and ongoing mutation, the WHO recommends that each descendant of omicron be monitored differently. That’s what officials in New York and New Jersey continue to do as they plead with the public to double down on mitigation factors that have been proven to work since the start of the pandemic, from washing your hands and staying home when sick to getting vaccinated, wearing a mask in crowded areas and getting tested regularly.
Hochul continues to urge New Yorkers, and the White House as well, to get their updated bivalent booster shots if they haven’t already (see vaccine data). The head of the White House Task Force on COVID recently underscored the point, saying that if you haven’t been infected lately or received that booster, you probably aren’t protected against XBB.1.5.
In general, experts say that healthy, vaccinated people are still at much lower risk of COVID complications than people who are immunocompromised or unvaccinated or undervaccinated.
As Hochul said in his latest COVID update, “I urge everyone to remain vigilant and continue to use all available tools to keep themselves, their loved ones, and their communities safe and healthy. Stay up-to-date on vaccine doses and perform tests before meetings o If your result is positive, talk to your doctor about possible treatment options.”