New York: Impact of Falling Oil Prices on the Global Economy

2023-12-12 17:29:58
New York: The fall in oil prices accelerated on Tuesday, weighed down by fears of an oversupply of crude and the gloomy global economic outlook, while European gas continued its decline to a near low. of three months. Around 5:00 p.m. GMT (6:00 p.m. CET), the price of a barrel of Brent BRENT Brent, or North Sea crude, is a variation of crude oil serving as a benchmark in Europe, listed on the InterContinentalExchange (ICE), a stock exchange specializing in energy trading. It became the first international standard for setting oil prices. from the North Sea, for delivery in February, lost 3.68% to 73.23 dollars.

Its American equivalent, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI WTI West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also called Texas Light Sweet, is a variation of crude oil that serves as a standard in setting the price of crude and as a raw material for oil futures contracts with the Nymex (New York Mercantile Exchange). ), the stock exchange specializing in energy.) for delivery in January, fell 3.84% to $68.58.

The two global crude oil benchmarks were at their lowest level since the end of June.

“Datas [de l’agence Bloomberg] revealed that the weekly average of Russia’s crude exports had reached levels not seen since the beginning of July,” Lukman Otunuga, analyst at FXTM, told AFP.

At the same time, “with US production still high and concerns about the health of the Chinese economy, the short-term demand outlook seems uncertain,” underlines James Harte, analyst at Tickmill.

Investors are worried that deflation will accelerate in China in November, due to falling energy and food prices, according to official data released on Saturday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

For Tamas Varga, this is a “sign of sluggish demand from the world’s second largest economy”.

The two oil benchmarks have lost between 25 and 28% since their highs of the year, reached at the end of September, when the Brent BRENT Brent, or North Sea crude, is a variation of crude oil serving as a benchmark in Europe, listed on the InterContinentalExchange (ICE), a stock exchange specializing in energy trading. It became the first international standard for setting oil prices. had come close to $100 per barrel.

“The ‘recent’ collapse in oil prices has been driven by concerns about oversupply,” says Harte.

At the same time, prices were also put under pressure “by the latest inflation data in the United States, which boosted expectations regarding the maintenance of interest rates by the Fed (American Federal Reserve) for a longer period. long”, notes Mr. Otunuga.

On the European natural gas side, the Dutch TTF futures contract, considered the European benchmark, fell, moving to 34.675 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) shortly after touching 34.505 euros per MWh, its lowest price since September.

“Prices are dampened by the prospect of a prolonged period of mild temperatures,” comments Barbara Lambrecht, analyst at Commerzbank, recalling that heating is the main driver of demand during the winter months.

“The drop in prices in Europe is also due to the hope that we will not have problems getting through the winter” in terms of gas quantity, she continues.