2023-09-02 01:00:00
Author: Naoto Ono, Gaitame.com Research Institute
table of contents
Date of writing: 14:40, September 1, 2023
Pointing to the next direction, the chart suggests a double top
US dollar/yen is unstable in the high range in the week of August 28
The US Jackson Hole conference passed without incident, and the US dollar/yen pair hit a new year high of 147.366 yen as the US interest rate trend continued to rise and the yen weakened. Since the US economic indicators announced after that were all disappointing results below the market expectations, the price was pushed back to 145.239 yen after the end of the upward cycle. (Each rate level is at the time of writing)
* Market trends are also explained in the program distributed by TEAM Harrons of Gaitame.com Research Institute.
US event won’t be decisive
Regarding the course of tightening in the US, although the market has largely priced in a skip in September, November and December are in flux, and the situation will depend on future economic indicators. The US dollar/yen pair has also returned to its recent highs following the “differences in direction of monetary policy between Japan and the United States,” but it cannot be denied that there is a lack of material to test another upward trend. Will the ISM non-manufacturing index, which will be released on September 6th, serve as a cue for the US dollar/yen to rise as the current concerns recede, or will it weigh on the US dollar/yen due to concerns about the future of the US economy? It will be watched closely.
In addition, given the lack of economic data released, among the FOMC participants with voting rights this year, Philadelphia Fed President Harker and New York Fed President Williams, who are considered to be dovish, have expressed their views on the outlook for monetary policy. It seems that attention will be focused on whether it shows recognition. However, it is unlikely that this will be a decisive blow to explore the next direction, and the US dollar/yen pair’s direction may be difficult to determine due to factors such as China’s policy trends and the Japanese government’s stance to restrain the yen’s depreciation.
USD/JPY Triangle Consolidation to Double Top
Looking at the shape of the chart, we are starting to see a double top due to a break in the support line from a bullish triangle. Attention will be paid to whether it will stop at the 21-day moving average near 145.00 yen. If the price breaks below this level, the price will drop to around 143.000 yen. The upward horizontal line is likely to close at around 146.750 yen, and if this level is crossed, it would be a good idea to buy as a range break. However, since it is still wary of deception, full-fledged buying may start when the price exceeds the latest high of 147.366 yen.
[USD/JPY chart daily]
Source: Gaitame.com “Gaika Next Neo”
Expected range: USD/JPY: 142.500-147.500
Events for the week of September 4th:
9/5 (Tue) 8:30 Japan July All Households Family Income and Expenditure Survey/Consumption Expenditure
9/5 (Tue) 23:00 USA New orders for manufacturing in July
9/6 (Wednesday) 10:30 Japan Bank of Japan Councilor Takata remarks
9/6 (Wednesday) 21:30 U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Collins speaks
9/6 (Wed) 22:45 U.S. Service Sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI, revised value) for August
9/6 (Wednesday) 22:45 United States August Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI, revised value)
9/6 (Wednesday) 23:00 U.S.August ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (General)
9/6 (Wed) 27:00 United States Federal Reserve Bank Economic Report (Beige Book)
9/6 (Wednesday) 28:00 United States Fed President Logan of Dallas, remarks
9/7 (Thursday) 8:50 Japan Status of foreign and domestic securities trading contracts, etc.
9/7 (Thursday) 10:30 Japan Mr. Nakagawa, Councilor, Bank of Japan, remarks
9/7 (Thursday) 21:30 U.S. April-June Quarterly Non-Farm Labor Productivity Revised
9/7 (Thursday) 21:30 U.S. Number of New Unemployment Claims
9/7 (Thursday) 23:00 U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Harker speaks
9/7 (Thursday) 27:30 US New York Federal Reserve Bank President Williams, remarks
9/7 (Thursday) 27:45 US Bostic US Atlanta Fed, remarks
9/8 (Friday) 8:30 Japan July Monthly Labor Survey – Total Cash Earnings
9/8 (Friday) 8:50 Japan April-June Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP, revised value)
9/8 (Fri) 23:00 U.S. July wholesale sales
short comment
The Basketball World Cup is in full swing. I don’t know much about basketball, but excitement is important. By the way, when it comes to basketball manga, there are probably many people who have a strong image of “S*muda*k.” I am also one of them. When I was a student, I used to read magazines with my acquaintances every week. That’s nostalgic.
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